The war in Ukraine is important, including for the situation around Taiwan, to seize which, according to the instructions of the President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping , the People's Liberation China's military must be ready by 2027. failures and successes of the sides, both strategic initiatives and technological methods of warfare.
If Xi decides to invade, he will not want to repeat the mistake of Vladimir Putin, who intended to take Kyiv in three days, and as a result of imprisonment in the war, which has been going on for the third year. Therefore, China probably intends to crush Taiwan with a surprise and massive attack, according to AdmiralSamuel Paparo , who recently headed the US Indo-Pacific Command. "They want to show the world a short, quick war, to confront him with the fact that happened before he comes to his senses,– said Paparo The Washington Post (WaPo). Therefore, the US and its allies should make sure that Xi understands that he is not interested in an easy victory and did not even try to organize an attack, the admiral explained.
To deter China, the US has developed a Hellscape strategy ("apocalyptic landscape, hell"): as soon as Chinese ships move toward Taiwan, the US will release thousands of air and sea (both underwater and surface) drones to deter the Chinese armada and give Taiwan, the U.S. and allied forces to prepare an adequate response. Paparo told WaPo:
— I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into a drone hell using some secret capabilities. So that they [the Chinese] would be in an extremely difficult situation for a month, and this would give me time for everything else.
The admiral did not begin to tell what technical capabilities he had, but stated that "they are real and can be deployed».
In March, the Pentagon announced that it would spend $1 billion on the Replicator program. from the production of a large number of sea and air drones specifically for the Hellscape strategy. According to Paparo, "Replicator" shows that the US is learning lessons from the war in Ukraine, where Ukrainian innovations in the field of drones brought the conflict to a new technological level.
In particular, Ukraine is conducting an effective campaign against Russia's Black Sea Fleet, using both missiles and naval drones developed by it. Drones have repeatedly attacked Russian warships in groups, including those hiding in bays, causing significant damage and sinking them. As a result, Russia lost about a third of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet, and since last fall, Ukraine has resumed unimpeded sea exports of agricultural products.
According to the Oryx website, which records documented losses, Russia has lost 26 ships and submarines, of which 19 were destroyed, and seven – damaged.
However, a full-fledged invasion – this is not China's only possibility. He can try, if not to conquer Taiwan, then to bring it to its knees. A full-scale war could see world GDP fall by 10.2% in the first year of conflict, with Taiwan's GDP falling by 40%, mainland China's – by 16.7%, the USA – by 6.7%, calculated at the beginning of 2024. Bloomberg Economics. In the event of a blockade of the island, GDP will fall by 5%, 12.2%, 8.9% and 3.3%, respectively.