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The world on a catastrophic warming trajectory, warns the UN

Natasha Kumar By Natasha Kumar Nov20,2023

The world on a trajectory of catastrophic warming, warns the UN

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A volunteer helps fight forest fires in El Patagual, Chile, last February. The future frequency of these extreme weather events will depend on the measures put in place by governments in the coming years, warns the IPCC. (Archive photo)

Agence France-Presse

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Climate commitments made by countries around the world put the planet on a catastrophic warming trajectory of up to 2 .9°C during this century, warned the UN on Monday, whose boss called on leaders to “redouble their efforts” in the run-up to COP28.

Continuation of current policies suggests a rise in temperatures of 3°C, compared to the pre-industrial era, during this century, according to the latest version of the UN Environment Program (UNEP) report on the gap between needs and prospects for reducing emissions, published each year before the COP. p>

Implementing current climate commitments made by countries around the world will only limit the rise to 2.9°C, taking into account their unconditional promises for the future – which are not subject to any conditions of external support – according to this document published just before the start of the major climate negotiations in Dubai as part of COP28 (November 30 – December 12).

This figure would be reduced to 2.5°C by integrating their conditional commitments (for example conditional on obtaining funding or efforts from other countries).

Leaders must step up their efforts dramatically, with record ambitions, record actions and record emissions reductions .

A quote from António Guterres, Secretary General of the UN

This requires uprooting the poisonous roots of the climate crisis: fossil fuels, he insisted Monday to the press.

< p class="StyledBodyHtmlParagraph-sc-48221190-4 hnvfyV">We have a lot of work to do because, at the moment, we are not at all where we should be and we must reduce our CO2 emissions phenomenally, Inger Andersen also told AFP, the Director-General of UNEP.

Given the intensity of the climate impacts we are already witnessing, neither of these two outcomes will work. is desirable, she insisted, referring to this range of 2.5°C to 2.9°C.

These levels of warming are far too high to hope to limit the cruelest effects of climate change, which is already resulting in uncontrollable fires, devastating floods or droughts depriving populations of income and food, with current average warming of 1.2°C.

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Signs are multiplying all over the planet.

The report published Monday is concerned about an acceleration in the number of records broken on the climate front.

It is already almost certain that 2023 will be the hottest year ever recorded in the world, according to the European Copernicus Observatory.

These gloomy prospects also illustrate the risk of greatly exceeding the objectives of the 2015 Paris agreement, which aims to maintain the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C and continue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

In the most optimistic scenario , the probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C is only 14%, UNEP calculates.

To meet these objectives, which are increasingly difficult to achieve, very ambitious emissions reduction policies will have to be put in place, which must be significantly reinforced, repeats UN Environment, based in Nairobi.

When we see that the G20 is responsible for 76% of global emissions, we know who must take fundamental responsibility, points out Inger Andersen, ordering these big economies (United States, EU, China, Saudi Arabia, etc.) to #x27;moving forward.

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Canada is still one of the world's leading oil producers. (Archive photo)

There are 193 countries in the world and this n& #x27;It's not what the other 173 do that will make the difference.

A quote from Inger Andersen, Director-General of UNEP

In 2030, global emissions will need to be 28% lower than current policies to stay below 2°C, and 42% lower for the more ambitious limit of 1.5°C.

The UN therefore calls on States to strengthen their commitments, formalized every five years in the form of nationally determined contribution (NDC, in English) by the 195 signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

As COP28 approaches, Inger Andersen says he is optimistic about the ability of countries to make progress despite the fractures caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war.

Countries and delegations understand that, despite the deep divisions that exist and are undeniable, the environment and climate will not wait. We can't press pause, she insists.

Natasha Kumar

By Natasha Kumar

Natasha Kumar has been a reporter on the news desk since 2018. Before that she wrote about young adolescence and family dynamics for Styles and was the legal affairs correspondent for the Metro desk. Before joining The Times Hub, Natasha Kumar worked as a staff writer at the Village Voice and a freelancer for Newsday, The Wall Street Journal, GQ and Mirabella. To get in touch, contact me through my 1-800-268-7116

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