The latest news from ZUS is not encouraging. Many seniors will experience shortages

The latest forecasts of the Social Insurance Institution regarding the population of Poland assume a decrease from 37.5 million in 2024 to 36.6 million in 2029.

That gives as much as 900 thousand less. The report presents a worrying shortage of funds for pension and retirement payments in the amount of PLN 80 billion in 2025.

The annual deficit of the Social Insurance Fund is worrying. What will the future bring?

In recent years, the financial situation of the Social Insurance Fund (FUS) has been raising increasing concerns. Forecasts indicate that throughout the period of this analysis, the annual balance of the FUS will be negative. This means that current contributions, subsidies to cover benefits from the state budget and transfers from open pension funds are not able to cover the growing expenditure.

Forecasts for 2025 and 2029

According to the latest data, in the intermediate variant, the annual deficit of the Social Insurance Fund in 2025 will amount to 2.2% of GDP, which in discounted amounts for 2023 translates to PLN 80.1 billion. In 2029, this deficit will increase to 2.8% of GDP, reaching PLN 115.3 billion. Moreover, the efficiency of the Social Insurance Fund, understood as the ratio of revenues to expenditures, will be lower by 4.1 percentage points in 2029 compared to 2025.

ZUS President Zbigniew Derdziuk explained the relationships affecting the financial conditions of the Social Insurance Fund. He mentioned the number of people entitled to receive benefits financed by the Social Insurance Fund.

The number of people receiving retirement and disability pensions financed by the Social Insurance Fund and the number of insured persons, which is influenced by demographics and macroeconomic assumptions, have a significant impact on the financial situation of the Social Insurance Fund. — admitted.

The data collected in the report show that by 2029 the number of people of working age (men aged 18-64 and women aged 18-59) is to reach a level of 0.61 million people less than in 2024.

At the same time, the population of citizens of post-working age (men over 65 and women over 60) is to increase by over 0.35 million people by 2029.

The state of the pre-working population is to change — from 18.1% in 2024 to 16.8% in 2029.

The presence of the working population is expected to fall from 58.1% to 57.9%. Although the difference seems small, the long-term effects of this phenomenon may be significant. Fewer economically active citizens may mean possible disruptions in the financing of pensions and the health care system.

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