Wholesale gasoline consignments at SPIMEX are getting cheaper due to weakening demand

Wholesale gasoline consignments at SPIMEX are getting cheaper due to weakening demand

Wholesale parties of gasoline at SPIMEX are getting cheaper due to weakening demand

MOSCOW (Reuters) –

Since the beginning of this week, the average cost of wholesale lots of AI-92 and AI-95 on SPIMEX has decreased by 2.5% and 2.3%, over the last 2 weeks – by 5.5% and 5.7%, respectively.

Gasolines are getting cheaper, despite a decrease in supply in September compared to August. The average sales volume of Ai-92 and Ai-95 in September decreased by almost 9% to 27.370 tons per day, against 30.030 tons in August.

Brokers on the exchange note a decrease in interest in the purchase of gasoline from end buyers.

“Sales have fallen for everyone. There is a lot of gasoline in the south (RF). They took it based on good demand. Tank cars went to Crimea, and now the transshipment through the base to tank trucks is gone – wholesale is not needed. In the middle lane they take it, but quite quietly,” says one of the wholesale buyers.

In addition, market participants believe that the increased supply in the market is artificially supported.

“All these are the consequences of the regulators' efforts. After the July jump (in prices), the market should be cooled with surplus resources. Now, on September 13, the (market) must also be saturated by the elections” – the trader is sure.

According to him, over the past weeks, the period for shipment of volumes under exchange contracts has decreased by about one and a half times. Along with declining retail sales, fast shipments lead to overstocking. Some tank farms are overcrowded and have to keep the arriving rail tank cars idle.

“We were actively recruiting (refineries) before repairs. Now the strait is falling, it is free on the stock exchange. They are still waiting for the (factories) to leave repairs in October, and October will be on sale in a week. They are starting to wait, as usual during a fall,” explains another wholesaler buyer.

However, a number of traders believe that the current equilibrium between supply and demand is not sustainable.

“The domestic market is not profitable for sellers with such prices. They will cut off the production of commercial (motor gasoline) and go with naphtha for export. After the elections, there may be a reversal,” one of them believes.

The analysis shows that the current reduction in the exchange sales of motor gasoline is proportional to the decrease in production with the start of repairs at the refinery. Despite the decrease in sales in September by about 9% versus August, the total sales on the Ai-92 and Ai-95 exchanges in September and August account for approximately the same share of the production volume, 25.5% and 26.2%, respectively. So far, the estimate of the fall in demand in September to August and the reduction in gasoline production are consistent.

Below are the volumes of primary sales and average prices for A-92 and Ai-95 gasoline based on the results of exchange trading on SPIMEX in August and September:

Period Volume Average Volume Average Total

sales price of A-92, sales price volume

A-92 for rub / t Ai-95 for Ai-95, sales

SPIMEX, SPIMEX, RUB / t A-92 and

tons tons AI-95, tons

Average 17.658 49.264 12.372 50.003 30.030

in August

Average value 16.336 49.932 11.031 50.509 27.367

in September

26.08.2020 16.665 51.064 11.535 52.034 28.200

09/07/2020 16.865 49.516 10.085 50.210 26.950

10.09.2020 19.035 48.274 11.160 49.046 30.195

Below are the wholesale prices for A-92 and Ai-95 gasoline and sales volumes on some basis based on the results of trading on SPIMEX on August 25 (comparison with the results of trading on August 24 and 18):

Delivery basis Average Change Change Volume Change Change

price 10 prices to 7 prices to 26 sales 10 volume volume

sep, rub / t sen, rub / t aug, rub / t sen, tonnes of sales by 7 sales by 26

Sep, tons Aug, tons

Gasoline AI-92

YaroslavNOS 48.698 -1.734 -3.364 900 60 300

Komsomolsk Refinery 54.738 -1.362 -1.523 1.020 0 300

Astrakhan GPP 48.700 -1.252 -2.610 1.260 -480 0

Saratov Refinery 48.688 -1.225 -3.417 480 -120 0

Ufa group of refineries 47.070 -1.141 -3.304 2.160 -1.800 420

Volgograd Refinery 49.912 -1.125 -2.737 540 0 60

Samara refinery group 48.100 -1.114 -2.753 2.280 120 540

Ryazan NPK 49.625 -1.016 -3.437 1.080 60 360

Moscow Refinery 48.862 -983 -3.355 480 -60 -180

Surgut ZSK 46.324 -976 -2.576 3.540 2.520 2.820

Gazpromneftekhim Salavat 47.243 -936 -2.775 1.020 -660 -3.840

PermNOS 48.086 -857 -2.492 420 0 -60

TANECO 47.800 -800 -2.700 455 0 325

OrskNOS 47.150 -717 -2.664 520 325 65

Nizhny Novgorod NOS 49.691 -641 -2.833 660 0 60

Omsk Refinery 47.301 -587 -1.881 960 -1.980 -480

Ukhta Refinery 48.800 -451 -2.100 120 0 60

TAIF-NK – – – 0 -195 –

Kinef – – – 0 – -2.400

Achinsk Refinery 49.758 201 -1.583 1.080 0 480

Gasoline AI-95

Komsomolsk Refinery 55.069 -2.391 -3.843 600 0 300

Antipinsky Refinery 47.120 -1.880 -3.080 600 540 240

Astrakhan GPP 49.022 -1.566 -3.428 1.080 600 960

Surgut ZSK 48.000 -1.500 -3.000 120 60 60

Samara refinery group 48.068 -1.452 -3.588 1.440 -120 -240

Volgograd Refinery 50.357 -1.379 -2.515 420 0 0

Ukhta Refinery 49.000 -1.300 -1.900 60 0 0

YaroslavNOS 49.498 -1.238 -3.199 660 0 -240

Ufa group of refineries 47.453 -1.104 -3.089 2.040 240 -120

Saratov Refinery 49.500 -1.100 -2.840 300 0 120

Moscow Refinery 49.509 -1.024 -3.177 720 60 60

PermNOS 48.240 -960 -2.560 300 0 -60

Nizhny Novgorod NOS 49.227 -700 -3.498 900 0 -180

Ryazan Refinery 50.000 -664 -3.089 900 0 0

Achinsk Refinery 49.935 -198 -1.925 660 0 240

Omsk Refinery 47.901 -26 -2.068 720 -1.020 -180

OrskNOS – – – 0 -65 –

Kinef – – – 0 -60 -2.820

TANECO – – – 0 – -195

(Maxim Nazarov, editor Gleb Gorodyankin)

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