Who wins: CSTO vs. RTS

Who wins: CSTO vs. RTS

Who wins: CSTO vs. RTS

Investing.com – So global positive again – DAX is up more than 3% overnight. S&P 500 futures regained losses up to September 18 and is growing for the second trading day in a row. At the same time, there is no certainty that the growth will continue, since there are not many reasons for rapid growth. The second wave of coronavirus infection and related quarantine measures still occupy the main part of the news agenda, and last week the number of cases in the world per day exceeded 350 thousand for the first time.

Tomorrow, the United States is expecting the first pre-election debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and just on that date, The New York Times accused Trump of malicious tax evasion. However, at the moment, it seems that it is not so important for the markets who will win – “positive” Trump or “leftist” Biden. The main thing is that it all ends as soon as possible.

Futures on a barrel of Brent by 20.30 Moscow time also rose 0.8% to $ 42.75, but there is at least a formal reason: Bloomberg scares investors with rumors about a possible cut in production in Norway by more than 20% due to possible strikes.

“Many expect that the promised new stimulus package for the US economy will still be approved in the coming days or weeks, this supports the markets, plus many believe that if the fall develops, the Fed can strengthen stimulus. However, what is happening is still more like a technical rebound, “- thinks the investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company Sergey Suverov.

In Russia, on the whole, everything is good. True, there are problems in the neighborhood. The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan sharply escalated over the weekend. There are two problems at once. The first is that both countries are members of the CIS, which has its own council of defense ministers, and Russia somehow needs to demonstrate its leadership. The second is a little more serious, since Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan (pictured) clearly stated his support for Azerbaijan, and Armenia is also a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). As long as this was expressed in the possibility of keeping a military base in Armenia, everything was kind of good. But now it turns out that Russia has purely military obligations to Armenia with all the consequences.

The good news is that so far only the entire power of Russian military diplomacy has fallen on Azerbaijan: CSTO Secretary General Stanislav Zas expressed serious concern and concern and said that “the solution to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is possible only by political and diplomatic methods.” However, the “asymmetry” of the actions of the Russian leadership that has developed over the years leaves investors with too much room for imagination.

In parallel, this week in Germany is expected to complete the investigation of the organizers of the hacker attack on one of the hospitals, as a result of which the patient died, and previously, among the probable perpetrators were named “Russian hackers”. It seems that the Kremlin is not mentioned in this connection, but at the present time it is no longer particularly important.

The Moscow Exchange index, however, is doing relatively well today, rising by 1.05% during the main trading session. But the “big brother”, denominated in hard dollars, the RTS index could not keep up with him – it added only 0.19%. A simple calculation allows us to guess that the ruble had to be salty today, and specifically by 18.50 Moscow time, the dollar rate increased by 81 kopecks. up to 79.02 rubles. The RGBI index of government securities fell 0.12% to 151.98 p. – seemingly nonsense, but it has been slowly decreasing since June, when it exceeded 157 p. And investors were obviously not buying OFZ for this.

And the prospects for the ruble are mediocre: the net position of traders on the ruble in the futures markets of Chicago and New York is negative for the second week in a row, which has not happened for two years. “The ruble came under pressure because of Armenia. Russia has a military alliance with it, and Turkey has openly supported Azerbaijan, and this threatens the remnants of energy cooperation. Stocks rose along with the American market, but the risks of a new wave of coronavirus and the risks of sanctions remain high for Russia. It is easy to see that the placements of transport companies are being prepared – Sovcomflot and, probably, Aeroflot (MCX: AFLT). Now is not the best time for that, but Aeroflot just needs money to support its current operations. Sovcomflot is not in such a critical situation, but the IPO has been discussed for a long time and, perhaps, they decided that after the elections in the United States, with the arrival of Biden, the situation will be even worse, says Sergei Suverov. – Probably, if the Central Bank does not decide to intervene or if the anti-crisis package is not urgently adopted in the US, the ruble will continue to fall. It's technically oversold, but who cares now? With regard to the stock market, for obvious reasons, one should not count on strong growth and it would be more logical to focus on current levels. ”

(Text prepared by Daniil Zhelobanov)

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