Trump's election by US citizens among hot topics for next year – The Economist

Photo: The Economist

"A year that promises extraordinary change and uncertainty" – The Economist magazine has unveiled a new puzzle cover, publishing a review of the topics to watch in 2025.

It seems fitting that the UN has declared 2025 the year of quantum science and technology. Because like Schrödinger's cat, which (in a quantum mechanical thought experiment) was both alive and dead in a box, 2025 is hovering in two very different states, determined by the outcome of the American election. Now that the United States has elected a new president, the world knows what kind of 2025 to expect: one in which Donald Trump returns to the White House.

The Journal offers ten topics to watch next year

America's Choice

The fallout from a landslide victory in the US election will affect everything from immigration and defence to the economy and trade. His “America First” policies will force friends and foes alike to question the strength of US alliances. This could lead to geopolitical realignments, heightened tensions and even nuclear proliferation.

Voters Expect Change

Overall, the governing parties have performed poorly in the unprecedented wave of elections in 2024. Some have been defeated (as in America and Britain), while others have been forced to form coalitions (as in India and South Africa).

So 2025 will be a year of expectations. Will the new leaders deliver on their promises? Will the defeated leaders change their ways? If not, there could be unrest.

Wide Disorder

Trump could push Ukraine to reach an agreement with Russia and give Israel a freer hand in Gaza and Lebanon. America's shifting posture and skepticism about the U.S. role in foreign affairs will encourage the “chaos quartet” of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea to stir up trouble and provoke more meddling by regional states, as seen in crisis-ridden Sudan. And it is unclear whether America will confront China in the Taiwan dispute or in the South China Sea.

Trump's Tariffs

America's rivalry with China will play out through a trade war, as Trump looks to impose restrictions and raise tariffs, including on American allies. As protectionism increases, Chinese firms will expand their operations abroad, both to circumvent trade barriers and to tap new markets in the Global South. So much for “decoupling” from Beijing; Chinese firms building factories from Mexico to Hungary have other plans.

Cleantech Boom

The Chinese government is encouraging a boom in exports of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles to offset a weak domestic economy. The result is a China-led cleantech boom, with solar panels and grid-tied energy storage expected to roll out faster than expected. And the world is about to find out whether global emissions have peaked.

After Inflation

Central bankers in the rich world are celebrating a victory over inflation. Now Western economies face a new challenge: reducing deficits by raising taxes, cutting spending or boosting growth. Many may have to increase defense budgets. Painful economic choices loom. In America, Trump's policies will make matters worse: high import tariffs could hamper growth and reignite inflation.

The Eternal Questions

America just elected its oldest president in history. World leaders are going gray along with their populations. More debate is expected about age limits for political leaders. China, meanwhile, is looking for economic opportunities in an “aging world.” In parts of the Middle East, by contrast, a booming youth population coupled with a shortage of jobs is threatening instability.

A Critical Time for AI

It's the biggest gamble in business history: More than $1 trillion is being spent on data centers for artificial intelligence (AI), even though companies still don't know how to use it and adoption rates are low (though many workers may be using AI secretly). Will investors lose their nerve, or will AI prove its worth as systems become more powerful and AI-powered drugs become more widely available?

Travel Problems

The global movement of people, not just goods, faces growing challenges. Armed conflicts disrupt global aviation. Europe adds new border checks as its “borderless” Schengen system “wears out.” The crackdown on “overtourism” will ease in 2025, but restrictions imposed by cities from Amsterdam to Venice will remain.

A life of surprises

Assassination attempts, radio explosions and giant missiles hijacked by “sticks” – one lesson of 2024 is to expect the unthinkable, the newspaper notes.

The Economist's forecast from last year: what came true

America's global choice: as the publication wrote, voters in the US have given their verdict on former President Donald Trump, and the consequences of this promise to be global, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine.

The Economist predicted that the outcome could come down to the choice of a few tens of thousands of voters in a few swing states – Trump, however, won a convincing victory and won all the “swing states”.

The magazine also wrote that the EU will have to step up its assistance to Ukraine, while protecting itself from the risk that Trump, if he returns to the White House, will stop supporting it.

In addition, the publication predicted that not all elections in the world will be free and fair – with the falsification of elections in the Russian Federation, the fate of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin really “depends” more on American voters than on Russian ones.

War in the Middle East: Hamas' attack on Israel and Israel's response have turned the region upside down, and for America, this has become a test of whether it can adapt to a more complex and more “threatening” world.

Multipolar disorder and the second Cold War: frozen conflicts are thawing, and local cold wars are heating up. America continues to restrict China's access to advanced technologies, and the rhetoric of a new cold war is hardening. Western companies trying to reduce their supply chain dependence on China have indeed found it easier said than done. And yet, both camps are trying to conquer the Global South – this is especially noticeable in China's policy.

Economic uncertainty remains.

Artificial intelligence : businesses are adopting AI, "regulators regulate", and techies continue to improve it. Unexpected uses and abuses of AI continue to emerge, with concerns about the potential for AI to interfere in elections in particular.

Unifying the world: The publication predicted that ideological differences could fade into the background during the Paris Olympics or other championships. But it also did not rule out that those hoping for global unity would find themselves in a dead end.

Prepared by: Nina Petrovich