The war in Ukraine has already brought its results – media

The war in Ukraine has already brought its results – media

The war in Ukraine has already brought its results - media

On February 24, Russia made a complete horror in Ukraine, when enemy missiles fell on peaceful cities. The US, UK and EU have imposed sweeping sanctions on the Kremlin dictator, and residents of non-invaded countries have rushed to help the Ukrainians in any way they can.

Today, exactly six months have passed since that terrible day, writes Bloomberg, and the Russian blitzkrieg has failed, giving way to a slow war of attrition. However, the situation is now no less difficult than in the first months of the invasion. But it may be harder for democratic governments to convince their societies of this amid rising energy and food prices. The publication lists the first six results that appeared during the six months of the war.

1. The victims among innocent people are very heavy

It is quite possible that the months when civilian casualties were the greatest are behind us. But hundreds of peaceful Ukrainians are still losing their lives. And many more will be injured. The publication notes that the peak of civilian deaths in Ukraine occurred in March. Then there were more than 5 thousand dead and wounded in the country per month. From May to July inclusive, losses among civilian Ukrainians were approximately the same – less than 2 thousand monthly. In August, this figure dropped significantly and became the lowest for all 6 months of the war.

2. Millions of refugees scattered across Europe

Even before the start of the Russian invasion, there were estimates that from one million to five million people could leave Ukraine in the event of a war. Reality showed that these estimates were too conservative. Some 6.7 million registered refugees are scattered across Europe, not counting those who have already returned home. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees recorded 11 million border crossings from Ukraine and 4.7 million in the opposite direction. Most of the Ukrainians who left are in Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic.

3. Global support for Ukraine has begun to decline

The horrors unfolding in Ukraine have united the democratic world and its societies. In the UK, Ukrainian flags can still be seen on the streets as a sign of moral support. Governments have transferred billions of dollars to help the Ukrainian army, as well as humanitarian and financial assistance. They also imposed sanctions against Putin and his henchmen.

But that didn't stop the bloodshed. And the Bloomberg editors believe that public support for Ukraine in the West will decline the longer the war continues. Especially Western societies will be pressured by their own problems, including rising prices. A survey conducted in 10 European countries in May showed that 42% of respondents believe that their governments are paying too much attention to Ukraine. They would like the authorities of their countries to deal more with problems at home.

4. Putin is winning the energy war

Of course, many European problems have been caused by the same enemy as in the case of Ukraine – Putin. Dropping bombs on Ukrainian cities, he successfully weaponized energy supplies. Energy markets forecasts are rather gloomy. Bloomberg journalist Javier Blas wrote that despite all current indicators, Putin is winning the energy battle. Russia still receives hundreds of millions of dollars from oil sales. And this money goes to finance the war against Ukraine.

This means that Moscow can afford to give up for a while the income it received from the sale of gas, and at the same time increase pressure on Berlin, Paris and London. These capitals are bracing for massive shortages and rising energy prices. The basic price of electricity in Germany rose to a record high in six months. As of August 18, it amounted to 552 euros per megawatt-hour. And it is unlikely that the price tag will decrease in the near future.

Germany did a good job of stocking up on gas for the winter. Her goal – fill your vaults by November by 95%. And now it seems that Berlin is quite capable of doing this. However, the risk of a cold and dark winter due to constant blackouts is still very real for many countries on the continent. Because the physical presence of energy carriers – that's half the battle. The other half – it's pricing. And here the situation becomes more and more difficult. Kosovo is already cutting supplies after a state distributor ran out of money to import electricity from Albania. In the next six months, most likely, many other countries will do the same. The UK is already planning to cut power for short periods in January.

5. Switzerland is still neutral, which is good

The democratic world has acted as the only front against Russia's atrocities in Ukraine. And this puts one country in an awkward position. It's about Switzerland. Neutrality has been part of the Swiss national identity for centuries.

But can the Alpine state retain this trait while protecting democratic and humanitarian values ​​in the face of a Russian invasion? Bloomberg journalist Andreas Kluth is sure that Switzerland should remain neutral. In the end, sooner or later, peace will have to be negotiated. And this will require an absolutely neutral environment. Geneva remains the best option.

6. The next six months will be very different

What's next? According to Gal Brands, an expert at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, the war is entering a third phase that could be decisive. The first was the Russian attempt at blitzkrieg. Second – the beginning of the battle for the Donbass. The third phase, according to Brands, should be distinguished by a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south. If Kyiv manages to regain control over a significant territory, time will be on its side. This will have both a psychological and a tactical impact.

Meanwhile, Putin was focused on rewriting the past and living through the present while completely ignoring the future. So far, he has managed to maintain at least demonstrative public support. But this is only because the Russians expect that they will not have to pay the price for the war against Ukraine. However, reality will inevitably remind of itself. And it will be a painful blow for the Russians. Russia is heading into a future in which only poor quality goods are available to its citizens, safety standards are low, there will be almost no foreign direct investment, and real incomes will decline. The situation, in fact, is very reminiscent of the end of the USSR, if that empire ever ended. Formally, it no longer exists. But the Russian war against Ukraine – the last and worst manifestation of her death throes. The declaration of Ukrainian independence helped bring down the Soviet empire in 1991. So it is rather symbolic and sad that Ukraine today finds itself at the epicenter of Putin's desperate attempt to reclaim Russian dominance. It's safe to say that the last 6 months have changed many lives, as well as the world order. And you can also say that the next six months can do the same.

Prepared by: Nina Petrovich