According to a study, the Mexican National Team is number 20 on the favorites list
Although Brazil is the favorite of the 32 teams to win the Qatar 2022 World Cup, the United States has a greater chance than Mexico to raise the glass.
According to a study published by the University of Innsbruck, Austria, and carried out by Andreas Groll, Neele Hormann, Christophe Ley, Gunther Schauberger, Hans Van Eetvelde, Achim Zeileis, predicted the probabilities that each of the teams has to win the most anticipated tournament in the world of soccer.
Achim Zeileis is head of the Department of Statistics of the Faculty of Economics and Statistics of said university and under a complex formula and method, which takes into account historical information , the expectation, as well as the present, was how they reached that conclusion.
The Aztec team has just a 0.2% chance of winning Qatar 2022, while the Stars and Stripes squad has a 0.6% chance of winning the title. Meanwhile, Brazil is the big favorite with 15%, followed by Argentina with 11.2% to win the championship.
Of the 32 teams, Mexico is The 20th team in terms of the list of favorites, while the USA is the 17th, I feel the best position in Concacaf. For its part, Canada is in the 29th place and Costa Rica in the 30th.
Soccer Football – FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 – United States hold a welcome event with construction workers – Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha, Qatar – November 15, 2022 Christian Pulisic of the U.S. and teammates pose with players from a construction workers team REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach
For their part, the rivals of the El Tri group, Lionel Scloni's team, is the best situated in terms of study, followed from Poland, with a 1.0% chance of winning the tournament and is in 14th place, while Saudi Arabia is the least favorite team, occupying 32nd place with 0.0 percent. cent.
“Forecasting is based on conditional inference random forest learning that combines information that captures the past, present, and future of the soccer teams in which they compete: knowledge of the past, where captured in an estimate of ability for each team based on historical matches”
“Expectations about the future in the next tournament are captured in an estimate of the capacity of each team based on the odds of international bookmakers. The current state of the teams (and their countries) is represented by covariates such as market value or the types of players in the team, as well as country-specific socioeconomic factors such as population or GDP. document.
Nov 16, 2021 File photo by Lionel Messi against Matheus Cunha in a match between Argentina and Brazil for the South American qualifying round for the World Cup in Qatar REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian
For this study, they took into account the five previous FIFA World Cup tournaments from 2002 to 2018 as training data and then applied to current data to obtain a forecast for the World Cup.
The top 10 places are:< /p>
1.- Brazil, 15%
3 .- Netherlands, 9.7%
4.- Germany, 9.2%
5.- France, 9.1%
6.- Spain, 7-5%
7 .- England, 7.4%
8.- Belgium, 7.2%
9.- Denmark, 6.5%
10.- Portugal, 5.5%