The next IPCC synthesis, at the end of 2029, will focus on adaptation

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Climate change threatens the well-being and health of billions of people.

Agence France-Presse

Since Saturday, IPCC experts have known the extent of their seventh cycle of work, which will focus on adaptation to climate change. Experts are due to publish several reports by 2029, including one specifically on cities, but the main publications will not be ready until 2027.

This structure of the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was adopted on Saturday morning in Istanbul, once a consensus was reached between the delegates of the 120 countries represented, after four days of debate and another night of negotiations.

Scientific and environmentalist voices demanded a radical change for the IPCC, hoping for the abandonment of voluminous reports in favor of more targeted thematic publications, faster to produce, without waiting for the end of the 2020 decade, which is crucial given the current trajectory of humanity.

Global GHG emissions must fall by 43% between 2019 and 2030 to hope to limit global warming to +1.5°C since the pre-industrial era, as planned by the Paris Agreement, the IPCC. However, the decline has not yet started and this limit will probably be reached between 2030 and 2035, according to his estimates.

Finally, the seventh cycle of the IPCC will follow the model of the previous one, concluded in 2023, with the publication of a synthesis planned for the end of 2029, according to a press release.

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It will be preceded by the interim reports of the three usual working groups:

The 2029 synthesis will therefore not be able to feed into the second global assessment of the Paris Agreement, planned for 2028 during COP33, regretted the American NGO Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), even if reports will do it before.

The first assessment of the Paris Agreement resulted in an unprecedented agreement at COP28 in Dubai last December, which opens the way to abandoning fossil fuels despite significant concessions. to industry and producing countries.

It does not exist; would not have been possible to have a synthesis ready in time for the second global assessment.

A quote from Robert Vautard, climatologist and co-chair of the first working group

However, the countries have mandated the IPCC to try to find a way to bring the publication schedule of the three working groups closer to that of the global assessment, according to this French scientist.

There was unanimity on the fact that these group reports must not be truncated or less exhaustive, to maintain all their scientific credibility, specified Mr. Vautard.

Created in 1988 and mandated by the UN, the IPCC does not publish studies, but it establishes a synthesis of the scientific consensus in all areas concerned by climate change.

His work is the main scientific reference in international climate negotiations and therefore in the annual COPs.

In the In the seventh round, the focus is on adaptation to climate change, said Jim Skea, chair of the IPCC.

To this end, the IPCC will establish indicators and new recommendations to measure adaptation efforts [to floods or drought through infrastructure protection, displacement of residences, changes in the field of agriculture, etc.].

Already announced and highly anticipated, the special report on climate change and cities, where more than half of humanity lives, has been confirmed on the program, scheduled for 2027.

This report is extremely important, because there are solutions for adapting cities and reducing their emissions that can be implemented quickly at the local scale , without the need to wait for an international agreement, explained Robert Vautard.

The IPCC must also produce a new document on the methods, in their infancy and controversial, CO2 capture.

Another key element on the menu: a new methodology must be developed to better assess emissions and the impact of short-lived pollutants [methane, nitrogen oxide and particles], less well controlled than CO2 even though they play a major role in global warming caused by human activity. p>