The new forecast gives basic Finns first place in the elections – PS 44, KOK 42, SDP 42, KESK 24 MPs
According to the seat distribution forecast prepared by the analytics company Accuscore for Iltalehti, the Fundamental Finns would win the parliamentary elections held on Sunday with a two-seat difference between the Kokomo and the SDP. basic-finnish-elections-first place-ps-44-kok-42-sdp-42-kesk-24-people-representatives-3bc42d5.jpg” alt=”The new forecast shows basic-finnishes first place in the elections – PS 44, KOK 42, SDP 42, KESK 24 MPs” />
According to Accuscore's forecast, Riikka Purra's (center) Perusfinomalieset is about to become the largest party. Joel Maisalmimarko-oskari.lehtonen@iltalehti.fiToday at 7:14 p.m.
According to the forecast, Perussuomalaiset would be the largest party in the parliamentary elections and it would get 44 MPs in the new parliament.
In a forecast based on polls published by Yle and HS and constituency-specific support surveys, PS's support in the parliamentary elections would be 20.1 percent.
Kooomus would get 42 MPs and SDP 42 MPs. The coalition would be ahead of SDP thanks to its larger total number of votes. The coalition's support would be 19.6 percent and SDP's 18.7 percent.
– Regarding the top three, the situation is so tight that the number one position of any party cannot be considered a surprise. Basic Finns, however, seem to be fighting the hardest with the coalition for the title of the largest party, Accuscore CEO Tuomas Kanervala says.
The forecast also takes into account Yle's latest poll published on Thursday.
The story continues after the table.
According to Kanervala, the support of the coalition has been on average 0.75 percentage points higher in the 2015 and 2019 elections as the last polls have shown.
– Now the downward trend in support may invalidate this difference. The elections will not come a day too early for the assembly, Kanervala says.
– For basic Finns, the difference has been 1.4 percentage points. This has been mainly due to their hard election day results in the previous two elections. If the same thing happens again this time, Perussuomalaiset will be the clear winner of the election.
The story continues after the table.
SDP's support in the 2019 elections was 1.5 percentage points below the last polls, and in 2015 it was 0.4 percentage points above them.
– Now their support trend is relatively flat, so the results of the support polls can to be very close to the election result, Kanervala says.
A catastrophic result for the Greens
The center would get 24 seats in the parliament, the Left Alliance 16 seats and the Greens 14 seats. The center would lose seven seats and the Greens six seats.
According to Kanervala, the drop in support for the Greens is now visible in several constituencies as a loss of seats.
– In those constituencies where they are losing the only place, even a small increase in support from the current numbers can save it.
According to the forecast, the support of the Greens is 7.7 percent, and the party is about to lose two seats in Helsinki and Uusimaa, as well as one seat in Häme and Southeast Finland.
A tough fight for the last seats
< p class="paragraph">According to the forecast, basic Finns have the last five passers and five first dropouts in different constituencies.
Basic Finns have the last passers in Satakunta, Hämee, Pirkanmaa, Southeast Finland and Savo-Karlia , and the first runner-up in Helsinki, Uusimaa, Central Finland, Oulu and Lapland.
According to the forecast, the coalition will be the last winner in Vaasa, and the first loser in Varsinais-Suomi, Satakunta, Hämee, South-Eastern Finland and Savo-Karelia.
According to the forecast, the SDP will be the last winner in Helsinki, Uusimaa and in Varsinais-Suomi, and the first runner-up in Pirkanmaa.
Iltalehti asked Riikka Purra what she would do first if she became prime minister. IL-TV
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