A rise in the price of gold to $ 3 thousand per ounce, even in the long term, is unlikely, but a short-term rise to $ 2.3-2.4 thousand is real, says Vitaly Nesis, head of Polymetal (MCX: POLY).
“I find it hard to believe in $ 3,000 even in some distant future. Fundamentally, gold is a cyclical commodity. And now we are at the beginning of the peak of the next cycle. It is difficult to predict how long it will last, but the general trend towards shortening of the cycle duration is obvious. He is moderately optimistic: at best, there may be a short-term rise to $ 2.3-2.4 thousand. But I don’t believe in $ 3 thousand, ”Nesis said in an interview with Kommersant newspaper.
Next year the company will budget $ 1.6 thousand per ounce (this year – $ 1.4 thousand).
Answering a question about a possible increase in the tax burden, he said: “High prices may cause a desire to increase the fiscal burden, so there is objectively such a risk.”
The withdrawal of “what is called super-profits” will actually lead to a drop in long-term investments, Nesis said.
“So, probably, you can plug some short-term hole, but in five years there is every chance of remaining at a broken trough. This is especially true for gold mining, where the investment cycle is relatively short, that is, many companies are constantly building something. It is not iron ore, not coal, not copper, where some deposits are operated for 50 years. We have an average period of eight to ten years, and we must go further, “said the head of Polymetal.