According to the forecast of global smartphone shipments made by Counterpoint Research analysts, the market will moderately recover in 2024 – is expected to grow by 3% compared to the previous year, to 1.2 billion units. Experts believe that the driving force behind this year's recovery will be the budget segment ($150-$249), which shrank in 2023 due to macroeconomic turmoil, especially in emerging markets, and the premium segment ($600-$799).
Also this year, unlike last year, developing markets will be the driving force behind the growth of the global smartphone market, according to analysts. For example, it is India and the Middle East and Africa (MEA). This especially applies to the segment of budget smartphones. It is also reported in the forecast that this will be facilitated by high levels of reserves in the IV quarter. 2023.
The budget segment ($150-$249), which experienced a noticeable decline in 2023, is expected to recover 11% this year. The main contribution to this process will be made by India, the Middle East and Africa, as well as the CALA region (Caribbean and Latin America). As inflationary pressures in Africa have eased significantly and local currencies have stabilized in many countries, consumer purchasing power has recovered and this will positively impact the device segment in the $150-$249 price range.
“Stable investment by Chinese OEMs such as OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi and Transsion Group in MEA markets and CALA increased competition by stimulating demand for budget smartphones, – say Counterpoint Research analysts. – Along with the recovery in demand for IT devices in emerging markets, increased competition among Chinese OEMs will be the main driver of growth in this segment.
According to the forecast, the premium segment (price range $600-$799) should maintain steady growth in 2024. Compared to the previous year, the market should increase by 17%. It is noted that the stable demand for premium smartphones will stimulate the appearance of an increasing number of devices using generative AI, as well as the popularity of foldable devices.
Apple and Huawei are considered by analysts to be the leaders in the growth of the premium segment. Steady demand for the iPhone, especially in emerging markets such as India and the MEA region, will drive Apple's growth. And Huawei, most likely, will maintain its strong presence in the Chinese smartphone market in 2024. The manufacturer's models have sustained demand in China, and it will only increase after the release of the Kirin chipset with 5G support.
“In the long term, we expect a slight year-on-year increase in global smartphone shipments, as the market appears to have bottomed out.&rdquo ;, – summarized in Counterpoint Research.