The expert warned about the risks of reducing bitcoin to $10,000

The expert warned about the risks of reducing bitcoin to $10,000

Expert warned about the risks of bitcoin falling to $10,000

In an interview with Cointelegraph, a trader under the pseudonym filbfilb allowed bitcoin to fall from current levels to $10,000-$11,000. In 2018, he gained fame for correctly predicting the end of the bear market .

According to the specialist, Bitcoin has become highly correlated with the Nasdaq, which is under enormous pressure due to the Fed's policies. The first cryptocurrency behaves as a risky asset, not as insurance against inflation.

filbfilb noted that the upcoming winter will be a serious test for the inhabitants and politicians of the European Union, the consequences of which will negatively affect hodlers. The important thing will be how the countries of the Old World can cope with the energy crisis.

According to him, everything is in the hands of diplomats who can prevent an emergency. Otherwise, risky assets will face a difficult future, which will also affect the positions of cryptocurrencies. The dialogue with Russia and NATO is important – the sooner it starts, the higher the minimum of bitcoin will be, the expert emphasized.

Unlike the previous bearish phases, this time everything is a little different in the context of drivers. From the point of view of the technical picture, on the contrary, there is a typical correction within the usual time horizon. Due to the lack of much trade in the $10,000–$20,000 zone, the fall could extend all the way to $10,000–$11,000.

The trader called “obvious” the rally of Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2023. He sees two reasons for this:

  • The first is the seasonal factor. Downtrends end 1,000 days after the halving (which will be at the beginning of next year);
  • the second is a change in sentiment to positive, based on game theory. With a probability of 2/3, the expert suggested that Europe will survive the coming winter, since if things go badly, this will increase the likelihood of dialogue, which will bring stability in the short term.

The specialist also commented on the upcoming The Merge on the Ethereum network. He noted that the reduction in the issue of the asset could spur the growth of the coin. At the same time, the expert did not rule out a dump after the event itself, citing the reaction of bitcoin after the halving, which is similar in effect to a merger.

The interlocutor of the publication recalled the upcoming US inflation report on September 13.

Positive news and the triggering of the axiom “buy the rumor, sell the fact” can lead to an outperforming Bitcoin trend. In the future, provided there are no problems after The Merge, the advantage will already be on the side of Ethereum, he added.

Recall that in August, bitcoin almost doubled the fall of the second cryptocurrency by capitalization.

On September 7, bitcoin quotes dropped to $18,500 for the first time since mid-July. Two days later, the price of digital gold returned to levels above $21,000.

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