Terrible money

Страшные деньги

Investing.com – the World’s stock markets today in a good positive. Volatility index S&P 500 VIX stays below 30 p. However, the index futures S&P 500 for the second time in a week I have reached a level of 2975 p. – about the same, which he began to be adjusted at the end of April. Futures for Brent crude oil also rose in a sideways pattern for about $35. Crude oil inventories in the U.S. decline for second consecutive week – that, on idea, should please the market. There is a small problem: both times, the experts predicted the increase, so the real understanding of what is happening in the industry is clearly not there. Of course, I want to believe that the decline in reserves of 5 million barrels in the week means the disappearance from the market of surplus, estimated at 20-30 million barrels a day. But today, the attempt to break above $36 as at 22.00 GMT ended in failure.

On Thursday the number of people infected with coronavirus in the world will exceed 5 million In recent days, according to the who, it was revealed 106 thousand new cases of infection, this is a record, and he increasingly makes you fear a second wave of the pandemic, such as is already happening in occupying the tenth place of “kovid rating” Iran, where for may daily increase in cases has more than doubled.

Shares declared about the possible presence of a vaccine company Moderna today lost most of Monday’s gains: news sites finally figured out that sensational press release actually promises nothing. However, the company was able to place the SPO at $1.25 billion campaign, tonight costing $73, was posted at $76.

Outset in the present situation it seems the safest way out: the market prices quite high, not to speak of the “peak of the crisis”, while losses in the adverse scenario will not be so painful. But 3 trillion promised by Congress last week, doing their thing: though terrible, but you have to try to grow.

“We have already passed, there comes the phase when the markets react only to the positive. And the market heard the fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking that he has “many tools in reserve”. For example, the fed would buy the bonds of “fallen angels” – companies whose rating has ceased to be an investment. There is no certainty that it is a good tool – but for the fed it is exactly new. Plus today the UK has placed on the paper with a negative rate – that is a lot of money and they go to the market – do not agree the head of Department of dealing operations “Lanta-Bank” Roman Ermakov. Markets still already detached from reality, and they are not interested in the new wave of the pandemic. But after a couple of days a critical mass of negativity can be formed. There is a new outbreak in China, the US President Donald trump once again stands against China and threatening to withdraw from the bargain. So the explanation for the following correction is already there, and it is also as old as the world. While closing short positions and the stock market, and oil production cuts happened, and the “reduced drawdown” demand is perceived as growth.”

In Russia the holiday: Monday, the RTS index rising almost “as a ruler”. Today Mobimii index rose by 2.18%, the RTS index by 4.1%, while the dollar during the day was reduced to RUB 71,13 an example of This occurs on the background of the fact that dividends declined MGTS and Alfa-Bank.

At auction the Ministry of Finance today, was placed a record volume of OFZ – revenue dostigla 178 billion.

“In Russia in the markets extravaganza. The yield on 10-year OFZs declined to 5.6% per annum. The flow of funds to the OFZ market causes a rise and the stock market. Shares of LUKOIL (MCX:LKOH) was up 13%. And the Central Bank still sells at $150 million a day, so the ruble is already going to 71 rubles per dollar. However, the economy situation is not the best – in April imports fell by 45%, from us, despite the fall in oil revenues, the positive current account. That is, for Russia the expected recovery of the economy after defeating the virus may mean the attack on the ruble, so at least at the level of 70 rubles per dollar I’d think about purchasing currency. And by the end of the year 80 RUB still seems more likely – continues Roman Ermakov. – However, the Finance Ministry is to blame while there is nothing. We have this year will be the budget deficit, and have to either spend the Fund, or to take – and the current low interest rates, on the positive, to take reasonable. Moreover, because it is unclear what will happen in the fall – things are changing, more recently, in March, the auction was canceled several times”.

(Text prepared by Daniel Zhelobanov)

 

 

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