S&P 500, ruble and RTS: the virus is back in action

S&P 500, ruble and RTS: the virus is back in action

S&P 500, ruble and RTS: the virus is back in action

Investing.com – Just like that, under the talk that “there is no reason for a real correction,” it took place. Since the beginning of September, the S&P 500 index has dropped by almost 10%, its futures have crossed this level – and so far no one promises the end of the “pokatuski”. Everything seemed to get better, get better. It didn't work out.

And it seems that the main reason was still the coronavirus. Although in recent months it has practically ceased to be mentioned in the stock exchange comments, and phrases like “normal people have forgotten about it” have even been heard, but it has not gone anywhere. The number of infected people in the world has exceeded 31 million, and its growth by more than 300 thousand per day does not surprise anyone.

Everything collapses – even gold futures at the moment went below $ 1900 per ounce. The S&P 500 VIX volatility index again broke through the level of 30 p. – however, it just did not go too far from it. The yield on US Treasuries is falling on all fronts: long, short, medium – indiscriminately.

Specifically, by 19.00 Moscow time today, futures on the S&P 500 have gone from 3316 points to 3218 points. No significant economic statistics were published today, and the only hope of the bulls was the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (pictured on the right). The meeting of the committee on open market operations last week did not bring anything fundamentally new and did not in any way inspire investors. And today Powell again said that the regulator had “enough tools” and promised to actively urge the authorities to stimulate the economy – but he never gave anything concrete.

There was one good news: some users of the WeChat service were able through a court to block the ban on downloading it through Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) services, as well as its other transactions in the United States. A similar blocking on TikTok was postponed for a week in connection with the approval of US President Donald Trump of a deal to enter Oracle and Walmart (NYSE: WMT) in this business. However, at the same time it became known that Trump (in the photo on the left) signed a decree on sanctions against countries, companies and individuals involved in the supply of weapons to Iran – so about “bash for bash”.

“Two factors are at work – first of all, an increase in the number of infections and new talk about quarantines, including in the UK, despite the fact that the economic recovery was not going at the pace that was expected. And against this background we have the actual silence of the FRS, – says the investment strategist of MC Arikapital Sergey Suverov. – There is no panic, as long as it is perceived as a usual volatility before the elections, and it is too early to talk about a “bear” market. The probability of a rebound is quite high. However, there is an alarming signal – a change in the sentiments of large investors: strategists began to look for an explanation for the recession and point out that the ratio of market capitalization to GDP in the United States reaches 150%, which is much higher than historical indicators. This indicator is very fond of Warren Buffett, and now it pops up in almost every conversation. ”

By 21.00 Moscow time, futures on a barrel of Brent dropped in price from $ 43.15 to $ 41.3 (in some places below $ 41). For Russia, this is not a disaster, but the rate of more than 4% per day is alarming.

In the meantime, everything is fine in Russia – unless, of course, you count the stock market and even little things. An Indian summer is coming in Moscow, and the number of people infected with coronavirus every day has grown by a third compared to August (when, contrary to all likelihood, it was clearly at the level of 700), and the picture is the same in the regions. The ninth most populous country is stable and with a good margin holds the fourth place in the number of cases in the world.

However, some analysts expressed their disappointment that the Russian stock market missed the entire summer growth of other markets. But this is not a problem, but we are not slowing down in the correction. Today the Moscow Exchange index fell 2.99%, the RTS index – 3.86%.

There really is one pleasant event: against the background of such a defeat, the RGBI index of government securities lost only 0.2%. But the ruble looks all the more upsetting, since even without a sale on the OFZ market, the dollar rate by 19.00 Moscow time increased by 64.5 kopecks. up to 76.4 rubles. In fairness, it can be noted that the ruble today is not the worst among world currencies – but, alas, at the same time, it is difficult to remember when it was the last time it was the best.

“For Russia, in addition to global trends, there are two more factors – a drop in oil prices associated with both quarantines and the resumption of exports from Libya, as well as the news of a tax increase continues to play out,” said Sergei Suverov. – A rebound in our case is also possible, but it is unlikely to be large and rather we should hope for stabilization at approximately current levels. The ruble by the end of the year, even under favorable scenarios, is likely to weaken moderately, and you can focus on the dollar at 78 rubles. ”

(Text prepared by Daniil Zhelobanov)

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