Investing.com – Once again, S&P 500 futures hit 3,400 points. It was already out yesterday, but US President Donald Trump, who is considered to have suddenly recovered, suddenly announced that negotiations on the stimulus package were over before his re-election. Which, obviously, resulted in a quick, but not pleasant, journey of the market to 3332 p. Whether such a demarche will add Trump's chances for a second term is still an open question.
As a result, the world markets today are moving into the woods, some for firewood – someone else is falling, someone is already rebounding from yesterday's lows, but on the whole the picture is pale. And economic statistics are not particularly favorable to joy: in August, industrial production in Germany instead of growth took, and sank by 0.2%.
“Processes are underway, elections – elections, but the pandemic has not yet been localized anywhere, and this risk will prevail, hardly allowing the markets to reach new highs,” believes the CEO of FKRS Andrey Pashkov (formerly Deputy CEO of Eurofinance Management Company).
The US Department of Energy raised its forecast for average oil production in the country in 2020 from 11.4 million to 11.5 million barrels per day – which, in terms of the remaining days before the New Year, means an increase in total annual production by more than 30 million barrels. Together with Trump's tweet, this sent Brent futures from $ 42.85 to $ 41.6 – all the more so as US crude oil inventories rose slightly more than expected last week.
In Russia today, for some reason, not very good news – although, it seems, new risks did not appear. Poland heartily fined Gazprom $ 7.6 billion in connection with the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. And not only fined, but obliged within a month to terminate the contracts concluded with Shell, Engie, Wintershall, Uniper and OMV. An interesting comment by a representative of Uniper, cited in Kommersant: according to him, there was no agreement on a joint venture, it was only about financing the project, which, according to the law, “is not considered essential”. In general, it follows from the comments that the foreign partners of Gazprom (MCX: GAZP) are very upset and will challenge the decision of the Polish regulator, albeit only in terms of the $ 61 million in fines that fell on them. It is convenient for companies that the courts may last for several years , during which the fines can be waived. It is not specified in the comments whether it is planned to return to the completion of the gas pipeline after their expiration.
As if in response to this, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs put on the wanted list Svetlana Tikhanovskaya – Alexander Lukashenko's rival in the last elections in Belarus, officially recognized as the winner of Lithuania, an EU member state, and accepted by a number of European politicians.
Finally, the experience of VTB's ever-memorable “people's IPO” (MCX: VTBR) was repeated: during the IPO of Sovcomflot, shares placed at RUB 105 each fell to RUB 92 in the first hour. True, by the end of the day the quotes had grown to 100.5 rubles, so that investors have so far lost only 4.3%, but the start is still spectacular.
In general, the Moscow Exchange index fell 1.74% to 2842.58 p. – recall that some analysts called the breakdown of the 2850 p. Level as a reason to move to the levels of 2700-2750 p. The RTS Index lost 2.11%. The ruble is “gaining negative strength” again, and by 20.00 the dollar rate has grown by 27 kopecks. up to RUB 78.19
But the Ministry of Finance today placed OFZs with a floating coupon at once for 315.7 billion rubles. True, securities with a constant yield were sold for only 30 billion rubles. – probably no more to count on. So the news is somewhat good – since the Ministry of Finance has a chance to fulfill its borrowing plan. However, the oversupply is not always in favor of the market, and, in addition, it remains to be hoped that rates in Russia will not go up for a long time and that servicing these securities will not cost too much.
Also, relatively good news can be recognized as the statements of the Russian leadership about the lack of intentions to actively intervene in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. True, Russia's participation in the Collective Security Treaty together with Armenia made it possible to expect another outcome – but this case is unlikely to greatly worsen the reputation of the country's leadership.
“News is not conducive to growth – neither the market nor the currency. And the situation with the pandemic raises concerns about economic recovery, and the foreign policy problem of the poisoning of Alexei Navalny remains, and the neighbors have problems. With such a combination of factors, if we can see positive dynamics, it is only for individual securities on corporate news – after which the movement will continue in the general course. The distribution of OFZs is not supported by the rush on the part of Western investors; Russian banks still have enough liquidity and there is a desire and opportunity to fill their money-boxes. But it is not endless, – continues Andrey Pashkov. – While the ruble has a temporary respite, but it is unlikely that it will strengthen – the dollar is clearly moving towards 80 rubles. Round figures attract attention, and at this level the state machine can be involved in order to prevent too sharp weakening of the currency and to reassure the people. “
(Text prepared by Daniil Zhelobanov)