Investing.com – Things are working out again, and for the third time in the last week, S&P 500 Futures goes past 3380p. The picture is scary, but new private investors are still fleeing the deposit market – and are ready to buy whatever comes their way.
In Europe, good data on retail sales for August came out today and rather good data on business activity in September, in the US the picture is also decent on the last point.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech to the National Association of Business Economists on Tuesday – he is expected to say something new about incentives. However, one should not forget: when the head of the Central Bank talks about budgetary incentives, this does not mean that there will be incentives – since they are not within his competence. It only means that he has run out of his incentives. And the White House is not up to it – there is a pestilence, now, after the presidential couple, press secretary Keili Makinani has also become infected with covid.
In general, stimulation is somehow not going well: in Europe, they also cannot properly distribute the 750 billion euros promised for economic recovery.
“There is already a question whether the anti-crisis package in the United States will be adopted before the elections or after. There is one more problem. They say that the illness of US President Donald Trump can strengthen the position of the Democrats offering a large amount, but too large a package can unbalance the financial system, next year the deficit is expected to be at 10% of GDP, “said Sergei Suverov, investment strategist at Arikapital.
There is good news on the oil market: there is a new storm in the Gulf of Mexico, and Goldman Sachs estimated that the budget of Saudi Arabia when forming the budget for the next three years is reduced only when the price is around $ 50 per barrel. From the latter, many clearly concluded that this is how much oil will cost – “the Saudis already know.” So, the futures for a barrel of Brent today by 20.40 Moscow time merrily grew from $ 39 to $ 41.75 – but still remains in the red since the beginning of October.
Against this background, the Russian market is growing after Friday's low, although the RTS index is having a hard time. Today, during the main trading session, it increased by 0.85% to 1157.86 p., But it had to reach this level three times, and the first call was at 10 am. The Moscow Exchange index is more cheerful – it confidently added 1.04%, and the dollar rate, respectively, by 19.00 Moscow time increased by 10 kopecks. to 78.31 rubles, although the dollar index fell today.
The Moscow Exchange continues to set records: in September individuals opened more than 610 thousand brokerage accounts, and their total number reached 6.8 million.However, in reality, this record is rather sad: despite such an influx of people wishing to leave money, the RTS index fell in September by 10%, and even the RGBI index of government securities slipped by almost a percentage.
And there are no more reasons for new growth today: the seasonally adjusted index of business activity (PMI) of manufacturing industries from IHS Markit in September fell again from 51.1 points to 48.9 points.
“Today the market is growing, but in the ruble, despite the rising oil prices, sellers still prevail. This speaks of serious weakness, and we can see the dollar more expensive than 80 rubles, – continues Sergey Suverov. – On the basis of recent statistics, shares of the Moscow Exchange have grown: there are more and more private investors, the trading volume in just a year has grown by almost a third, and in shares – by almost 90%. Therefore, the market is holding on despite the macroeconomic problems. Accordingly, if the interest persists, we can now rather expect the continuation of consolidation at the current levels and even growth by the end of the month – within 2-3% ”.
(Text prepared by Daniil Zhelobanov)