S&P 500 and RTS: Autumn blues

S&P 500 and RTS: Autumn blues

S&P 500 and RTS: Autumn blues

Investing.com – The main news of the day is, of course, the covid infection of US President Donald Trump and his wife. True, how to interpret it is unclear – whether this is a blow to his position before the elections, or a chance of an instant miraculous cure. As is usually the case in a relatively neutral, but nervous situation, the markets as a whole were rather a little sad, and the S&P 500 VIX volatility index was already habitually going to 30 p.

Moreover, September deflation in Europe has intensified and exceeded forecasts, in the USA wages and, most importantly, the number of jobs are growing more slowly than we would like, but unemployment is lower than expected. That is, in general, the statistics are “neutral-nervous” and could be interpreted as you like – both for sale and for purchase.

As a result, futures on the S&P 500 were in the red by half a percent by 21.00 Moscow time, but the futures on a barrel of Brent lost more than 3% and went down substantially below $ 40.

“It is clear why oil prices are falling: the level of compliance with the OPEC + agreement is not very high, and there is a new slowdown in demand. In Russia itself, we are also seeing a seasonal slowdown, since the IV quarter is always weak for this segment, a decline in prices was already expected, plus the dynamics of the pandemic will likely lead to new restrictions. And we are not only an exporter, but also a large consumer, ”explains Valery Vaisberg, director of the analytical department of the Investment Company“ Region ”. – In America, investors have already raised the stock quotes of companies like SnowFlake and Tesla, and so far the situation is more good than bad. There are many IPOs and M&A deals, all these stories are good for the market – but considering other circumstances, there is no certainty. Next week will show a lot – on October 15 there will be Prime Day discounts at Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), new pre-election debates, a meeting of the OPEC technical committee, there may be news on sanctions against China. If all this goes well, then maybe we'll grow too. “

In Russia, the Moscow Exchange index fell by 1.25% during the main trading session, the RTS index – by 2.16%, but this time everything is happening for a good reason: in general, the market felt relatively good, but Sberbank shares (MCX: SBER) immediately plunged 8.47% due to the dividend cut-off.

But the ruble traveled separately and without any excuses: by 19.00 Moscow time, the dollar exchange rate had grown by 89 kopecks. and again went to 78.25 rubles.

America and Europe quite expectedly begin to impose sanctions against the leadership of Belarus, which introduces “retaliatory” ones – and, unfortunately, this concerns Russia. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Belarus' retaliatory sanctions against the European Union will operate on the territory of the entire Union State, that is, in Russia too. Basically, nothing new, but it sounds sad.

“On the ruble: after very successful OFZ placements in the third quarter, when they raised 1.3 trillion rubles, there were plans for 2 trillion rubles. for the IV quarter. It became clear that the reserves were being cherished, and it seemed that the government was preparing for something very serious. Revenues will grow slowly, but costs will have to be conserved. The large supply of OFZs discourages buying securities, it is difficult to expect an influx of foreigners, and the ruble is obviously weak. The government's plans to contain the exchange rate are quite aggressive, but now, probably, non-residents will begin to convert Sberbank's dividends. So some strengthening is possible, but overall the ruble will simply not be weaker than it is now. However, there is a feeling that the bottom may have already been passed. There is a trend for the weakening of the ruble, but we saw different trends, and this one is also hardly endless. As for gas, the situation is improving, prices are recovering, so exports should continue to grow, and quarantined imports will shrink – traffic in cinemas has dropped, demand in stores is changing, so the balance of payments should improve. And finally, there are hopes that the vaccine will work and that the pandemic will be reversed in November. And it’s hard to believe that it will be completely covered with sanctions right in October, ”says Valery Weisberg. – As regards the RTS, we see a certain despondency: it seemed that we were on the rise, but now domestic demand will again decline, PMI is below 50 p. The banks' portfolio situation is deteriorating, and this will also put pressure on. The Central Bank and rating agencies are still calm, but there will be no excess profits. Soon there will be reports of Sberbank under RAS, while there is no time – there is no driver. As long as we can go to 1100 points on the RTS – we must probably go down there before pushing off. “

(Text prepared by Daniil Zhelobanov)

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