Sideways, down, bounce and sideways again

Sideways, down, bounce and sideways again

Sideways, downwards, bounces and sideways again – Global markets ended the day mixed again today, but the direction for the day was not very pleasant. European indices opened with growth, but enthusiasm dried up already in the afternoon in Moscow. Some of them managed to stay in positive territory, but not all of them. In America, there was a similar picture: the futures on the S&P 500 index from 3300 p. Rose to almost 3320 p. – but after 2 p.m. Moscow time, a reversal occurred, and after 9 p.m. the futures came close to 3250 p.

One of the reasons for the disappointment is the business activity indices, some of which in Europe and the US turned out to be worse than forecasted, and in some places slipped into the negative zone. In addition, the market today was dealing with another speech by the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell. True, there were no particular hopes for him – but those that were, alas, were not justified. Because the thesis “the regulator still has many instruments in stock” was expanded to “there are many instruments, but without fiscal measures they are no longer effective”.

Finally, the original problem of the pandemic remains. The number of Covid-19 cases in the world this week will already exceed 32 million, the growth rate of their number is not decreasing. And yesterday British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the reintroduction of protective measures that could remain in force “for up to six months.”

“Now it will only end after the American elections. It is not worth counting on a stable trend, investors will be guided by ratings and debates. In such a situation, it is not necessary to say that we will begin to grow – either a sideways trend, fluctuations near current levels, or profit taking, dollar strengthening and a reduction in the share of risky assets in portfolios. Indeed, just a couple of weeks ago, about a third of the managers surveyed by Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) said they would cut their portfolios, ”says Yaroslav Kabakov, Deputy CEO of Finam.

Futures on a barrel of Brent also tried to grow today on data on crude oil inventories in the United States – however, the decline turned out to be below forecasts, and from $ 42.4 quotes soon returned to the opening level of $ 41.7. Against this background, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that since the share of oil and gas revenues in the budget has decreased, one should speak of a decrease in the dependence of the Russian economy on the “oil needle” and, accordingly, its increased stability.

In Russia, in general, the picture is rather positive. The Moscow Exchange grew by 1.1%, the RTS index – by 0.23%. True, at about noon the last one exceeded 1220 points, and finished below 1200 points. The dollar exchange rate is partly to blame for this: by 19.00 Moscow time it had grown by 60 kopecks. up to 76.7 rubles. However, this is more likely good news, since during the day the rate rose to 77.11 rubles.

The RGBI index of government securities fell by only 0.1%, and such a decline does not pose a particular threat to investors – the only problem is that it has been slowly but almost continuously declining since June.

Introductory information on the sanctions topic continues to be received. The US Treasury Department has added several more new Russian citizens and enterprises to the sanctions lists, as well as a number of companies from the CARs and Finland that have collaborated with them. However, it was not possible to track the impact of this news on the market – there are enough others.

“The Russian market follows the same global trend. The OFZ yield curve is falling, but so far for individual issues. And today's placement of the Ministry of Finance cannot yet be called unsuccessful – fortunately, they were placed in the first half of the day, – Yaroslav Kabakov continues. – At the same time, there is a feeling that the main round of weakening for the ruble has been passed. Although the afternoon is depressing, it is worth remembering that the dollar is strengthening against all currencies. I think that in the near future we should slow down with a decline, the current maximums for the dollar will remain at 77 rubles. and, quite likely, soon the rate will return to 75.5 rubles. At the same time, we have good stories on the market – the purchase by Yandex (MCX: YNDX) of TCS, the placement of, the new strategy of Sberbank (MCX: SBER). And we are good at bouncing. So, if the ruble stops falling, it is quite possible to expect 1220-1240 points on the RTS again. ”

(Text prepared by Daniil Zhelobanov)

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