S&P 500 and the ruble: regulators' fault is not proven

S&P 500 and the ruble: regulators' fault is not proven

S&P 500 and the ruble: regulators' fault is not proven

Investing.com – The US market is in trouble again: the S&P 500 futures, which closed at 3351 points the day before, rose smoothly to 3363 points in the first half of the day.However, after 4:00 pm Moscow time, it went down quite steeply – and by 8:30 pm Moscow time it went below 3285 points …

There are current news reasons for this. The statistics are partly good: for example, in the US, the index of consumer sentiment and expectations from the University of Michigan in September turned out to be better than expected. True, a bad Q2 current account balance was also published – but so much has happened since then that these numbers are nothing at all.

But Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi said the Conservatives continue to push for a $ 2.2 trillion economic support package against the $ 1.5 trillion proposed by the Republicans. This sounds nice, but it could mean that the problems with the promotion of the aid package will drag on until the elections.

There is also a problem with the “Chinese line”: restrictions on the Chinese applications WeChat and TikTok are starting to operate in the US as early as Sunday. There is a risk that Oracle will not have time to take over the American piece of TikTok's business, and most importantly, the Chinese side is unlikely to become kinder from this in economic negotiations.

There is also a technical reason for the sudden movement: it is today that a number of options and futures for indices and shares expire.

Finally, the current market dynamics are very similar to those observed in June, just after the previous meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve – said managing editor of ForexLive Adam Button.

At the same time, if we ignore the heap of nuances, the picture is rather sour: this is not the first puncture of the market since the beginning of September, and the previous one, on September 9, ended one and a half dozen points higher.

The situation in the oil market is no less nervous. Futures on a barrel of Brent rose during the day from $ 43.3 to almost $ 43.8, but then it became known about the resumption of oil exports from Libya. So by 21.00 Moscow time, the struggle was below $ 43 – which, however, by today's standards, is also very much.

Everything is fine in Russia. The RTS index fell 1.18%, but the Moscow Exchange fell just 0.67%. The ruble is weakening again – by 19:00 Moscow time, the dollar rate increased by 37 kopecks. up to 75.54 rubles. However, he has already been at these levels in September, and more than once.

The Board of Directors of the Central Bank expectedly left the key rate unchanged. Perhaps the only real news on this topic is the persistence of statements about the readiness to reduce it further, if necessary. But, in fact, it has already been said more than once that in the current situation the Central Bank has few options: inflation above the target level does not allow the rate to be reduced, and it is even more impossible to raise it, since the already weak ruble will immediately fall down against the background of the OFZ sale.

However, inflation will soon get better – after all, there is a proven method: Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov has already ordered to check “ensuring the legality and rights of citizens in the formation of prices for socially important essential food products.”

It also became known today that in August the volume of retail sales, instead of recovering, fell again – and it was declining faster than in July and faster than experts' expectations. Unemployment continues to grow, and it is also growing faster than forecasts for the second month in a row. The interest here is not the percentage itself (6.4%) – because, due to the peculiarities of the economy, it has little to do with reality, but the very fact that even with such a curve indicator Rosstat cannot do anything.

So far, there is no talk of a systemic correction in the Russian market. ‚ÄúDuring their meeting this week, the OPEC + leaders demonstrated their readiness to control the situation and to act actively, this supported oil prices. But then the news on Libya followed – and oil prices went down. Most likely, this is what knocked down the ruble – it is unlikely that its current weakening was a reaction to the actions or statement of the Central Bank. Plus, investors did not want to leave long positions at the end of the week, since the world is also less stable than usual, “says Dmitry Polevoy, Investment Director of Loko-Invest.

(Text prepared by Daniil Zhelobanov)

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