Ruble, RTS and S&P 500: life without sanctions

Ruble, RTS and S&P 500: life without sanctions

Ruble, RTS and S&P 500: life without sanctions – And another day of confusion and vacillation: the markets seem to want to grow, but there are few heroes willing to take a position for the weekend. As a result, futures on the S&P 500 by the evening went from 3375 points to 3320 points, and a barrel of Brent still slipped below $ 40. In America, good data on the August consumer price index came out today, it is higher than forecasted – but not enough to radically affect the market conditions.

“The next package of assistance to the economy has not come true. And for now we are, as expected, trading through some kind of corridor with very wide movements. There are three weeks left before the pre-election debates of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, they clearly will not become a passing event, but they may not give new reasons for concern – in recent comments, Biden tried to soften the threat of tax increases, pointing out the advantages of his program for the economy and investors. – says the director of the analytical department of the Investment Company “Region” Valery Vaysberg. – There are no strong drivers for the market, the topic of China has receded into the background: not long ago they were expecting imminent and tough sanctions, but the issue of the forced sale of TikTok has not been resolved and may be postponed, which will become a victory for China. So, in general, there are no reasons for a serious correction ”.

In Russia, there was some enthusiasm in the morning: the markets went up and the ruble strengthened to 74.8 per dollar. However, by noon everything was over: the markets stood up, by the end of the day the growth amounted to 0.45% at the Moscow Exchange and 0.53% at the RTS, and the dollar rate again began to storm the 75th level. The first half of the week saw the completion of an active correction, so although at the beginning of the week the dollar rate exceeded 76.5 rubles, the market ends the week at about zero, and since the beginning of the month the RTS index has lost almost 3%.

The agency “Prime” suddenly announced today that the volume of borrowings of the Ministry of Finance for 2020 could be increased to 5.4 trillion rubles, the net attraction of which will amount to 4.44 trillion rubles. This is more than two times more than the 2.3 trillion rubles envisaged in the budget, but the news approximately coincides with the information of the middle of summer – then the representatives of the ministry also named the figure of 5 trillion rubles. True, since then it has somehow been forgotten, and the results of OFZ auctions did not indicate a rush: in the first eight months of the year, the Ministry of Finance gained 2.34 trillion rubles from the placement of OFZs.

“It is impossible to cram such volumes into the remaining time. The banks, according to the Central Bank, have liquidity of 1.5-2 trillion rubles, plus the same amount of money is being claimed by a shaft of regional placements. I think, after all, the Ministry of Finance is fine with money, the plan of placements for the third quarter has been fulfilled, although no one believed in it either. So these figures most likely need to be correctly interpreted, they can be calculated for a long time, and the Ministry of Finance for the IV quarter needs a trillion more at the most, “the analyst believes.

The rest of the picture, in his opinion, also gives no cause for serious concern. “The Finance Ministry's budget plans have come out, the numbers are normal, without big surprises, and the market should not be scared. There was a presentation of the main directions of monetary policy, it became known that the Central Bank is ready to reduce the rate, but only if necessary. By February 2021, a certain outcome of the fight against the pandemic is expected, and by Q3-Q4, the markets can begin to prepare for a rate hike – but this will be done along a fairly flat trajectory. And perhaps in 2022 we will see the rate of 5%, and it will enter the neutral range sooner in 2023. This is a comfortable statement, and it gives us those low OFZ yields that we have now, ”continues Valery Vaisberg. – As for the situation with the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, so far the talks are in a raised voice, but the position of “negotiations and investigations” is clearly being built. There will still be a beautiful Sberbank conference (MCX: SBER), and investors will surely show positive results. So we have a real opportunity in the coming week to return to 1280 p. RTS. The ruble is also surprising – 77 rubles. for the dollar, we never saw 90 rubles. the euro did not pass. Oil prices are weak, but the opening of Turkey, as it turned out, had little effect on the balance of payments. And if the sanctions premium goes away, by the first quarter of next year we can reach 68 rubles. for the dollar. Yes, so far we remain about 75 rubles, but this year we can see the rate of 73 rubles. The balance of payments is very narrow. And it can be changed, for example, by the inflow of foreign currency for the coronavirus vaccine: an inflow of $ 500 million or $ 1 billion within two months is serious numbers. Taking into account the additional sale of the currency received by the Central Bank from the sale of the block of shares of Sberbank – and there 185 billion rubles there, the IV quarter is not at all catastrophic for the ruble ”.

(Text prepared by Daniil Zhelobanov)

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