MOSCOW (Reuters) – The ruble is falling in price on Tuesday morning, despite the optimistic sentiments of foreign markets, and is opposed by the worsening epidemiological situation in Russia, aggravation of the situation in another CIS country, as well as the impending risks of new Western sanctions against Moscow.
By 11.00 Moscow time, the quotes of the dollar / ruble pair were at the level of 78.51 by tomorrow calculations, the ruble is losing half a percent of the level of the previous exchange close. Against the euro, the ruble depreciates by the same half a percent to 92.49.
Earlier, the session lows of the ruble were reached, 79.25 per dollar and 92.70 per euro.
Dmitry Polevoy from Lokoinvest names a possible conversion of Sberbank's dividends (MCX: SBER) among short-term potentially negative factors for the ruble, which should be transferred to institutional investors no later than October 14.
Sberbank announced dividends for the past year in the amount of 422.4 billion rubles, while half will go to the state, which has a controlling stake, and part can be converted into currency, both by foreign holders of ruble shares, and for payments on foreign currency ADR / GDR.
The daily increase in coronavirus cases in Russia exceeded 11,000 people for the first time in several months, reaching 11,615 for the first time since May 11; the number of deaths over the past day – 188 against 117 the day before.
In the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, protesters against the results of the parliamentary elections seized a government building, the country's CEC announced that it would consider canceling the results. At the same time, the tense situation remains in Belarus, while Azerbaijan and Armenia are fighting for Nagorno-Karabakh.
Meanwhile, positive sentiment prevails on global markets amid improving health of Donald Trump, who contracted the coronavirus last week, as well as awaiting a new package of monetary support for the US economy, towards which American lawmakers are gradually moving.
Over the past day, oil prices have risen significantly – on Monday, Brent quotations jumped by more than 5% for the first time in four months. On Tuesday, this mark is gaining more than a quarter of a percent and is estimated at $ 41.41 per barrel.
In Forex, investors continue to shift from the safe US dollar to highly profitable emerging and commodity currencies, which are mostly appreciating today.
The focus of attention is the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell (17.40 Moscow time), and the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde should appear twice in the information field (at 11.35 and 16.00 Moscow time).
“We still believe that without a deterioration in the geopolitical history, there are no reasons for further significant and sustainable weakening of the ruble,” Polevoy believes, noting that the sales of the Ministry of Finance's currency increased in October within the framework of the budget rule will provide moderate support to the ruble.
The Russian Ministry of Finance will allocate 5.8 billion rubles daily for the sale of foreign currency within the framework of the budget rule from October 7 to November 6, and to them will be added the sale of foreign currency for a controlling stake in Sberbank, renewed by the Central Bank since October 1, for 2.9 billion rubles a day.
This brings the total daily interventions from Wednesday to 8.7 billion rubles ($ 111 million).
(Vladimir Abramov. Editor Dmitry Antonov)