The results of the first round of the presidential elections in Romania shocked everyone: the international community, expert circles, sociologists and the Romanians themselves. The far-right pro-Russian politician Calin Georgescu, who had not been noticed by pollsters, unexpectedly took first place.
Such a sensational result forces us to reconsider not only the general forecast for the winner of the presidential election, but also the forecasts for the parliamentary elections, which will be held this weekend – December 1.
This is what the managing partner of PGR Consulting Group LLC Ruslan Rokhov writes about in an article for the EP.
He notes that almost immediately after the end of the first round of the presidential elections, G4Media.ro journalist Stefan Lefter published a journalistic investigation into the phenomenal success of Călin Giorescu.
Thanks to a large number of organized “volunteers” and a strategy of using social media algorithms, Giorescu's campaign practically demonstrated how modern propaganda can influence the change of the electoral landscape in a very short time, which no sociological research has been able to reflect.
This issue has already been raised by the Romanian Supreme Defense Council, which held a meeting on November 28, chaired by President Klaus Iohannis.
There, a violation of electoral law was recorded, as one of the candidates (it is easy to guess who exactly) benefited from the preferential treatment provided to him by the TikTok platform, without marking him as a political candidate.
Thus, the visibility of this candidate has significantly increased compared to others who were recognized by TikTok algorithms as candidates in the presidential election.
On the evening of November 25, more than a thousand young people gathered at the University Bucharest Square for a demonstration against Georgescu's possible presidency.
During the protest, the youth chanted slogans: “Putin, don't forget, Romania is not yours”, “If we are together, we will save the country from Georgescu”.
Previously, the National Audiovisual Council of Romania called on the European Commission to investigate TikTok's role in the vote due to, in its words, “suspicions of manipulation of public opinion”.
The Vice President of the Council, Valentin Alexandru Jucan, stated that, in his opinion, the platform's algorithms amplified materials favorable to one candidate, and the TikTok platform lacked transparency regarding who sponsored the campaign content.
A December 1st – parliamentary elections in Romania.
Georgescu's sensational success makes a scenario real where the three pro-Western parties (PNL, PSD, and USR) may not have enough votes to form a majority. The Hungarian UDMR party may be their salvation if it manages to mobilize the Hungarian minority and enter parliament.
“Against the backdrop of the parliamentary elections, where there are also potential for sensationalism, the second round of the presidential elections seems quite predictable.
Everything looks like pro-Western voters will mobilize against Georgescu and Elena Lasconi will become the new president.
However, in the week separating the parliamentary elections from the second round of the presidential elections, much can still change”, – writes Rohov.
At the same time, as reports the EP, the first round of the presidential election in Romania may be held again if the country's Constitutional Court decides to annul the vote on November 24.
If the court makes a corresponding decision, the second round may take place on December 15, and the second round – December 29.
On Thursday, the Constitutional Court unanimously decided to appeal to the Central Election Commission with a request to count all valid and invalid ballots in the first round of the presidential election.
And on Friday, November 29, the court postponed the decision to annul the results of the first round of the presidential election until next week.