Prediction: These big names are in danger of being left behind in the elections – See if your own candidate is on the list
Accuscore prepared a forecast for Iltalehti about the candidates' chances of getting through in the parliamentary elections on April 2. There are 345 candidates in the forecast. In IL-TV's Suoraa puhetta program, Maria Ohisalo, the chairman of the Green Party, was tested. marko-oskari.lehtonen@iltalehti.fi Today at 7:30 a.m.
According to the forecast prepared by the analytics company Accuscore for Iltalehti, there are 123 likely candidates in the parliamentary elections held on April 2, of which the majority (115) are sitting MPs.
This group includes, for example, the chairmen of the parliamentary parties and the ministers of Sanna Marin's (sd) government, with a few exceptions.
According to the forecast, the ministers Thomas Blomqvist (r), Petri Honkonen (center), Antti Kurvinen (center) and Mika Lintilä(Centre) have to worry about the election results more than other ministers.
According to the forecast, there are only eight likely passers from outside the parliament.
They are MEPs Laura Huhtasaari (ps), Mayor of Tampere Anna-Kaisa Ikonen (cok), ex-mayor of Tampere Lauri Lyly (sd), Deputy Mayor of Helsinki Nasima Razmyar (sd), former MP Joona Räsänen(sd), working life professor Jarno Limnéll (kok), executive director Raisa Ranta (left) and exercise instructor Saku Nikkanen (sd).
Petteri Orpo (kok), Riikka Purra (ps) and Sanna Marin (sd) are the likely passers as chairmen of the three biggest parties. Joel Maisalmi
See your own candidate's forecast
In the forecast based on the poll published by Helsingin Sanomat on Tuesday and the constituency-specific support measurements published so far, the candidates are divided into three categories according to their chances of success in relation to the candidates in their constituency.
The starting point of the forecast is that all likely candidates pass.
The other two categories are possible and unlikely, the latter of which includes candidates who may surprise, but whose passage in the elections is not likely. About 70 percent of the possible ones go through.
You can arrange the table as you wish or search for your own candidate using the search function. The story continues after the table.
There are 50 sitting representatives among the possible passers, some of whom have to wait until the last pass.
According to the forecast of the sitting representatives, Jari Kinnunen (center) and Mikko Kärnä (center) are more likely to fall than to renew their seats.
“There are always surprises”
Accuscore's forecast for the previous elections did not include the surprise category, but 165 candidates made it through the list of 250 names, consisting of probable (200) and front-runners (50), i.e., in practice, 35 candidates were a surprise.
Accuscore CEO Tuomas Kanervala estimates that in the upcoming elections the number of surprise candidates will be around 10-15 percent, which means 20-30 MPs.
– There are always surprises in elections , and there are always surprises that are not on this list, says Kanervala.
There are a total of 2,424 candidates in the parliamentary elections, so there are 2,079 candidates who do not belong to the three categories.
