Prediction: AI will create millions of tons of e-waste by 2030

By 2030, generative artificial intelligence could cause e-waste to grow to 2.5 million tons annually, a thousand times more than the figures in 2023 .

This growth is due to the need to upgrade and replace the hardware on which the AI ​​models operate, such as servers, graphics processing units (GPUs), and other hardware components. According to forecasts, by 2030 the volume of electronic waste may reach such proportions that for every inhabitant of the Earth there will be approximately two devices equivalent in size to a modern smartphone. Such a situation can significantly aggravate the problem of waste processing and negatively affect the ecological situation and people's health.

The intensive use of graphics processors is one of the key factors contributing to the rapid growth of e-waste. For example, according to Nvidia, the weight of modern GPUs has increased to 1,360 kilograms compared to 32 kg two years ago. Such powerful and complex components require numerous materials, which turns the field of generative AI into one of the most resource-intensive sectors. This necessitates a more responsible approach to the production and use of artificial intelligence equipment.

Geographical analysis shows that the largest volumes of e-waste will be generated in North America, which will account for 58% of the total volume. This is due to the large number of data centers in the US and Canada. East Asian countries, particularly China, Japan and South Korea, are expected to generate about 25% of the world's waste, while the European Union and Great Britain will account for 14%. In addition, US restrictions on the supply of advanced GPUs to China could lead to increased waste in that country due to the use of obsolete equipment.

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Scientists emphasize the importance of implementing measures to reduce the amount of electronic waste. For the USA, which is a leader in the development of artificial intelligence, it is suggested to pay special attention to environmentally responsible production and the creation of sustainable equipment. China, in turn, must focus on efficient exploitation and disposal methods to reduce the amount of waste that is growing due to frequent upgrades of the technical park.

As possible solutions for reducing electronic waste, scientists suggest extending the service life of equipment, as well as reusing outdated chips in less resource-intensive tasks. An important step can be the development of energy-efficient algorithms that will reduce the frequency of equipment replacement, which, in turn, will reduce the amount of waste. It is also recommended to improve microcircuits to increase productivity without a significant increase in material costs.

According to the UN, in 2022 the world generated 62 million tons of e-waste, of which only 22.3% was properly recycled. Given the projected increase in waste volume, experts fear that the recycling rate could drop to 20% by 2030. This is due to the fact that the growth rate of e-waste exceeds the capacity of the infrastructure to dispose of it.

Developing countries often use informal recycling methods such as incineration and melting, which can have dangerous consequences for the environment and people's health. Due to these inefficient approaches, valuable resources are lost and the environment is polluted with toxic substances, which emphasizes the need to improve the global e-waste recycling system.