OPEC has sharply raised its estimate of oil supply from non-cartel countries for 2020 – by 360 thousand barrels per day compared with the forecast made a month ago, mainly due to the United States, according to the monthly report of the cartel.
As indicated in the report, the estimate for the United States has been raised due to a stronger recovery in liquid hydrocarbons production in June – by 1 million bpd month-on-month.
Now OPEC expects the production of liquid hydrocarbons in the United States to decline in 2020 by 0.97 million bpd – to 17.46 million bpd, while a month ago OPEC predicted a decrease of 1.32 million bpd – up to 17.09 million b / s.
“The supply of liquid hydrocarbons from the non-OPEC country is now expected to grow by 2.7 million bpd in 2020 to 62.5 million bpd. Despite losses in the second quarter of 2020 due to the pandemic COVID-19, the decline in non-OPEC oil supplies was much less than the drop in demand. The recovery in Q3 production has already begun in the US, Canada, Latin America, although Hurricane Laura partially affected US production in the Gulf of Mexico, ” – says the report.
The estimate for the growth of non-OPEC supplies in 2021 was raised slightly, by only 10 thousand bpd, but due to the effect of the increase in the 2020 base, production of non-OPEC is now expected to be 63.47 million bpd, rather than 63 , 1 million b / s.