Not thanks, but in spite of

Not thanks, but in spite of

Not thanks, but in spite of – Surprisingly, the predictions of experts are coming true: the S&P 500 futures show a clear urge to consolidate somewhere around the 3370 level. Since the middle of last week, the rally turns into a decline and vice versa, with the highs getting smaller, and the minimums are more. As expected, with a high probability before the US elections, that is, before the beginning of October, the market expects high volatility without a pronounced trend.

Bad statistics on construction for August and unemployment for the past week were released in the US today: both are not fatal, but worse than forecasted, the situation is improving more slowly than expected. However, after the publication of these data, the market managed to grow back, fall again and again move to growth.

“Following the meeting on Wednesday, the Fed did not say anything new. Some waited for promises of negative rates, it turned out that they would not be – but few thought so. Therefore, the decline in the market after the publication of the statement is rather a fixation in fact, and not a correction in any way, “says Roman Ermakov, head of the dealing operations department at Lanta-Bank.

The rally in the oil market continues – futures for a barrel of Brent went up in price from $ 42.3 to $ 43.4 by 19:00 Moscow time. The market is supported, among other things, by cheerful statements by the participants in the meeting of the OPEC + Monitoring Committee. True, they contrast strangely with new discounts from Arab countries and the extension of the compensation regime for violators of the agreement – but such is life.

Everything is fine in Russia. The RTS index fell 0.68%, while the Moscow Exchange index fell by only 0.11%. The ruble is also depreciating at a moderate pace: by 21.00 Moscow time, the dollar exchange rate rose by only 30 kopecks. up to 75.27 rubles. In general, the rate remains approximately the same as at the end of August.

Sanctions winds blow in the information field: the European Parliament demanded to block the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in connection with the attempt to poison Alexei Navalny. Also in this regard, it is proposed to create an analogue of the “Magnitsky list”, etc. The most significant proposal in connection with this is to introduce sanctions not by consensus, but by a simple majority, that is, to cut off the possibility of blocking their introduction with one or two votes.

At the same time, on the whole, the threats and promises of the European leadership do not make much more of an impression on the market than the promises of the Russian leadership itself, the failure to fulfill which has long surprised no one.

“The most aggressive sanctions will be from the United States, but, accordingly, it will be only after the elections. In the meantime, while the ruble is supported by oil and gas prices, production is growing, and the current account may improve by the 4th quarter. So fundamentally, if there are no sanctions, by October we can see the dollar and 72 rubles, – says Roman Ermakov. – As for the stock market, now the main question is how the Ministry of Finance is going to borrow almost 3 trillion rubles on the market in the remaining time. It is clear that in such a situation, our key rate will hold out for a long time at about 4% – the Ministry of Finance cannot borrow otherwise. It is even possible to drop another 25 bp at the next meeting. But all the same, without serious support from non-residents, this is unrealistic, and we still see a neutral attitude at best. At the same time, it seems that one should not count on the redemption of OFZs by the Central Bank either: the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina promised that there would be no quantitative easing in Russia, continues Roman Ermakov. – Accordingly, other ways are being looked for to fill the budget – corporate taxes are raised, tax agreements are made with Cyprus, taxes on deposits are introduced, personal income tax is increased. A year ago, President Putin spoke of stability in the tax system – but it lasted until the first problems. Shares of Tatneft (MCX: TATN) lost almost 10% in two days, followed by Lukoil (MCX: LKOH). But they have already begun to buy back: they calm down and get used to new unpleasant news. Since we have not participated in the global growth of the last two months, I would not be surprised if in the next three weeks we see an increase in the RTS by 5-10%, especially taking into account the government's intention to hold an IPO of Sovcomflot, also to replenish the budget – not in a falling market to carry it out. ”

(Text prepared by Daniil Zhelobanov)

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