Passenger air traffic in the Russian Federation in 2020 will fall by 53% compared to last year, to 60 million people, according to the macro forecast for 2021-2023 published by the Ministry of Economic Development (was approved by the government at a meeting on September 16). The decrease in the indicator is associated with restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the ministry said. In March, the Russian Federation banned all regular passenger flights abroad (partially resumed in August-September), quarantine measures were introduced in the regions of the country.7
In May, the head of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, Yevgeny Dietrich, said that air traffic this year could fall by 50-75%, depending on the situation with the spread of COVID-19.
“After a drop in the volume of traffic and passenger turnover in 2020 by more than 50% compared to 2019, in the forecast period, growth is expected at the level of the world average. In 2023, the number of passengers carried is expected to reach 134.8 million people (+5 , 2% by 2019) “, – says the macro forecast.
The availability of air transport and the dynamics of passenger traffic will be influenced by “ongoing measures to support domestic air traffic,” the forecast says. Now this support is provided by subsidies from the federal and regional budgets. Among other measures, the Ministry of Economic Development singles out the modernization of the airport infrastructure, “the creation of large multimodal hubs based on airports.”
According to the forecast, commercial air cargo transportation by the end of the year will decrease by 9.5% to 1.04 million tons. Freight turnover will also fall by 9.5%, to 6.7 billion tonne-kilometers. The demand for such transportation “is largely related to the dynamics of incomes of the population and organizations, since this type of transport is mainly used to transport expensive goods,” the Ministry of Economic Development notes.
In 2019, Russian airlines increased passenger traffic by 10%, to 128.1 million people, and freight traffic decreased by 2.4%, to 1.15 million tons.
Pre-crisis level of passenger rail traffic will recover in early 2021
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation expects a recovery in the volume of passenger transportation by rail by the first quarter of 2021. “The positive dynamics of the recovery of passenger traffic after the removal of restrictions gives reason to expect a return in traffic volumes to the level of 2019 by the middle of the first quarter of 2021,” the macro forecast says.
“In 2022-2023, the growth of traffic volumes will resume. The main driver of growth will be the development of the Moscow transport hub: the implementation of the Moscow Central Diameters project, the development of the metro and the Moscow Central Transport Ring (MCC). In 2023, the volume of passenger traffic is expected to be at the level of 1,234. 6 million people (+ 2.7%), “the document says.
According to Russian Railways, passenger traffic in August 2020 decreased by 19.9% (to 86.8 million people), passenger traffic – by 39.3% (to 10.5 billion passenger-kilometers), in January-August 2020. – by 31.3% (up to 543.7 million people), passenger turnover – by 43.6% (up to 52.2 billion passenger-kilometers), respectively.