Investing.com – As Investing.com predicted, it is likely that the markets rallies that began Thursday evening were just a temporary bounce. This morning in Moscow, futures for the S&P 500 reached a local maximum of 3362.62 p., But by 18.50 Moscow time it had slipped close to 3320 p. The situation does not look like a total collapse, nevertheless, most markets are again “in red”, and for a number of indices, the decline exceeded 1%.
Futures on a barrel of Brent is also diving today: the night before its price exceeded $ 43 at the moment, and today by 19.00 Moscow time it dropped below $ 41.
The decline is taking place despite the very good dynamics of the September US Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board: it turned out to be one-seventh higher than the forecast and for the first time since April went positive. However, the negative is enough. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker said that the labor market will not recover until 2023. It also became known that the head of the US Food and Drug Administration Stephen Hahn insists on compliance with the rules that will probably prevent incumbent President Donald Trump from starting the distribution of the coronavirus vaccine before the elections.
Finally, quite expected, but the main news was the fact that the number of deaths from Covid-19 infection in the world exceeded 1 million people. By itself, this threshold does not mean anything, but this figure is much more impressive from the media point of view – and therefore requires a more pronounced reaction from politicians and other people responsible for human lives.
“Of course, the coronavirus remains an important factor, even German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today that the situation is quite difficult and the likelihood of expanding quarantines is high. This can slow down the growth of the economy, and investors have priced in its active recovery. And while there is also no confidence in the agreement on a new trillion-dollar plan to support the American economy – the figures proposed by Democrats and Republicans differ too seriously, and this is also a reason for sales. Shares are falling, oil lost almost 4% today, although this was expected – we predicted a range of $ 38-42 per barrel of Brent. Higher prices were supported by temporary factors – hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the threat of strikes in Norway, while fundamentally the situation with the balance of supply and demand remained weak. We do not expect new good statistics for the market either, and it is logical for oil to consolidate in this range, ”says chief analyst at Promsvyazbank Bogdan Zvarich.
Things are not so bad in Russia. True, the Moscow Exchange index during the main trading hours fell by 0.58%, and the RTS index – by 0.96%, but this is not the worst thing now. But the dollar rate, during the day, only 2.5 kopecks. that did not reach the level of 80 rubles, by 19.30 Moscow time dropped to 79.01 rubles. – and this is even lower than the previous close.
However, at the same time, the euro rose by 38 kopecks. up to 92.64 rubles, and someone will say that, for example, in relation to the half-forgotten bi-currency basket, the ruble still fell in price. But, most importantly, not 80.
“The ruble has been under the pressure of the global environment for the last two weeks – the flight of investors from risk and the growth of the dollar against most currencies, as well as local factors – sanctions tensions and the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. But from 80 rubles. a clear profit-taking began per dollar. Even with the current decline in oil prices, there are no factors contributing to the strengthening of the ruble at this level. Now it is likely that the dollar rate will remain in the upper half of the range of 75-80 rubles. By the end of the year, with the stabilization of the energy market and the partial recovery of Russian exports, a retreat below 75 rubles is possible. Today the euro is doing very well and is growing against almost all currencies – it added 0.6% to the dollar. But on the horizon of the week, we see the likelihood of its retreat from the current levels of 1.174 in the range of 1.145-1.155 per dollar, – continues Bogdan Zvarich. – Most likely, investors have included the risks of oil prices in stock prices in advance, so we sank less than we could. However, it should be noted that the support at the level of 2850 p. On the Moscow Exchange index has not yet been passed, its breakdown will indicate further movement to the area of 2700-2750 p. And before the release of the Moscow Exchange index above 3000 p. This scenario is basic. “
(Text prepared by Daniil Zhelobanov)