ISW experts named three key stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

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ISW experts named three key stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

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ISW experts divided the 11 months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine into three key stages, highlighting the period of the infidels' initiative, the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the period of trench warfare.

This is reported in the ISW report.

It is reported that the Russian troops had the initiative and were on the offensive from February 24 to July 3, 2022. It was after the temporary occupation of Lisichanskaya in early July that their offensive in a number of areas reached its climax.

The Ukrainian military seized the initiative and launched its first major counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region on September 6. A large-scale autumn counter-offensive ended with the liberation of the western part of the Kherson region on November 11.

According to ISW analysts, since then Ukraine has not been able to launch a new a large counteroffensive, which allowed the war to turn into a positional war. This stage allowed the occupiers to regain the tactical initiative.

The delivery of Western aid greatly influenced the course of the war. The supply of US-made 155-mm artillery systems in April, and then HIMARS installations in June, became important factors in the preparation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Key ISW findings:

  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued their counter-offensive in the area of ​​Kuzemivka (about 16km northwest of Svatovoe).
  • The Ukrainian military continued to repel limited Russian counterattacks west and south of Kremennaya.
  • Founder of the Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin reported that on January 29, his fighters allegedly took control of Blagodatnoe (about 12 km northeast of Bakhmut).
  • Russian forces continued to carry out ground strikes in the areas of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
  • The Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled attacks near Pobeda (4 km southeast of Donetsk) and Vuhledar. Russian sources claim that hostilities are taking place to the west and east of Vuhledar.
  • Ukrainian military attacked with a launcher HIMARS over the bridge in Svetlodolinsky (20 km northeast of Melitopol).
  • Russian authorities continue to create conditions for the second wave of mobilization. Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee, said on January 28 that the committee is considering more than 20 laws on deferment of mobilization.
  • The General Staff of Ukraine confirmed that as of January 29, the formation of a strike force by Russian troops in Belarus was not recorded.

Prepared by: Sergey Daga 

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