This Tuesday the control of both chambers of Congress, 36 key governorships and plebiscites on abortion, climate change or access to health between other topics
Soledad CedroFrom Miami, Florida, United States
For days many people have voted in different states where early voting is enabled (REUTERS)
It is common to hear that the future of a nation is at stake in each one of the elections. But in the case of the midterm contest that will be played this Tuesday in the United States, the phrase is not a hyperbole but a reality. All seats in the House of Representatives, 35 seats in the Senate and 36 governorships will be on the ballot.
According to most polls, Americans will go to the polls with the following concerns on their minds: the economy and inflation, confidence in the electoral process, insecurity and abortion. Based on the solutions to these issues that politicians offer, the future of the most powerful nation on the planet that comes to a new election with an extremely weakened president and an opposition that still has not finished defining whether it will once again line up behind him will surely be defined. Donald Trump will either look for new faces for the 2024 presidential election. Depending on who controls Congress and who is elected governor, they will be the possible public policies to face post-pandemic inflation, the reopened debate on abortion and the candidates for the next presidential elections.
Joe Biden's approval ratings are historically low. According to the latest Reuter-Ipsos poll, 55 percent of Americans disapprove of his management. But from the Republican party things are not too clear either. In this election, it will be defined if the voters remain faithful to Trump and the candidates protected from him, or if the party is ready for new emergents who are asking for his place.
US Elections 2022 (Marcelo Regalado)
House of Representatives
The eyes of the nation are on what is going to happen in the House of Representatives. Its 435 seats are up for grabs, meaning that either party can win a majority in the lower house.
As of today, the Democrats are in control with 221 seats, against 212 Republican seats (two seats are vacant due to special elections). You gain control of the chamber with 218 seats.
Most of these contests are not considered competitive. Many congressmen will be easily re-elected to their positions, and many others have “safe” elections due to the partisan nature of their districts.
But according to an analysis by CBS, there are 81 seats in real dispute, that is, in which both parties have possibilities. Given the situation today, the Republican party has to reverse at least five seats so that, added to the two special elections (one in Indiana and one in Florida) that are expected to result in a Republican victory, it ends up with the majority in the chamber.
Historically, in midterm elections, the incumbent president's party loses control of Congress. This would logically give Republicans an advantage.
Historically the middle elections term often benefit the opposition party
But in special elections in recent months, issues like abortion have energized a group of voters who don't always go to the polls (suburban women, for example), tipping the scales in favor of Democrats. . However, the economy in poor shape and insecurity are causes that are motivating the Republican base to leave as well.
Why is control of the Lower House important? Because as one of the two chambers of the legislative power, federal laws are developed and approved there. That is to say, there is very little that the executive power can do if it does not have the support of the legislature.
Depending on who retains control of the chamber, who presides over that chamber will be determined. Democrat Nancy Pelosi is currently the president, but if the Republicans win, Kevin McCarthy will most likelyrelieve her. To preside over the House of Representatives is to be in third place in the hierarchy of power in the United States, only behind the president and the vice president.
Among the 10 closest seats in the Senate election is that of Marco Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida. Although this second re-election is not proving so easy for Rubio, it is expected that at the end of the day he will achieve victory
Of the 100 seats in the federal senate (2 for each state), there are 35 at stake in this election. Currently, the Democrats control the Senate with 48 seats of their own, two independent seats that usually vote with them, and the tiebreaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris, who presides over the upper house. Therefore, for there to be a change in power, Republicans must retain all of their seats and reverse at least one currently Democrat seat.
Of the 35 in dispute, 21 are seats currently Republicans and 14 Democrats. In most it is assumed that there will be no changes, but in 10 of the seats in question there is a tough battle.
In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin, the polls show a tiebetween Democratic and Republican candidates. The control of the Senate will depend on the final result. Florida, North Carolina and Ohio are expected to vote Republican, while Colorado, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are expected to vote Democrat.
Governments that keep in suspense to the United States (Marcelo Regalado)
On Tuesday there will be gubernatorial elections in 36 states plus 3 territories. In 31 of these races, the current governors are seeking re-election.
In some cases, like Florida, the election is almost a given, because it is estimated that < b>Ron DeSantis will be easily re-elected. But in four states the situation is not so clear cut.
Oregon is one of them. President Biden has visited this state several times in recent months trying to support Democratic candidate Tina Kotek. But things are sticky for Democrats there, even though the party has controlled the state since 1982. While the Democratic vote is likely to be split between Kotek and a former moderate Democrat now running as an independent, Betsy Johnson< /b>, the Republican candidate, Christine Drazan is stepping harder and harder. The polls give Drazan a slight lead, within the margin of error.
In Michigan, while Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer has always been popular, the Republican Tudor Dixon has managed to captivate a large part of the voters, and anything can happen.
In Oklahoma< /b>, a traditionally Republican state, incumbent Governor Kevin Stitt has a strong contender in Joy Hofmeister, a former Republican now registered Democrat who is challenging him for the governorship.
Finally, in New York, the situation is also open-ended. Andrew Cuomo came to sound like a possible presidential candidate when he became the face of the fight against COVID-19. But then came the sexual abuse scandal and he was forced to resign. In his place was Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul . Hochul is now seeking re-election, and while she is popular, no one dares to say that she will beat Republican candidate Lee Zeldin . The contest has taken on such national relevance that the Republican Ron DeSantis has traveled from Florida to support Zeldin, and both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have out campaigning for Hochul.