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Inflation in the United States falls sharply in November

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In the United States, the consumer price index increased 2.6% in November compared to the same period a year ago an.

Agence France-Presse

Inflation fell sharply in November in the United States, to 2.6% year-on-year, moving closer to the 2% target, according to the Price Inflation Index PCE, gauge favored by the American Federal Reserve (Fed), published Friday by the Commerce Department.

And the downward revision of October showed that inflation had actually already fallen below 3% year-on-year, to 2.9%.

Federal Reserve officials stressed at the end of their meeting on December 13 that inflation has slowed over the past year, but remains high.

They now see it slowing down a little faster than they expected in September. It is expected to fall to 2.4% year-on-year at the end of 2024, compared to the 2.5% previously anticipated. But we will have to wait until 2026 to see inflation return to the desired level of 2%.

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Employees of the New York Stock Exchange.

The CPI, another measure of inflation released earlier in the month and used to index pensions, showed a slight decline in November compared to October, at 3.1% year-on-year. compared to 3.2%.

As for consumer spending, it increased in November, the start of the holiday season ;year, by 0.2% compared to October (compared to 0.1% in October compared to September).

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The Household income increased by 0.4%, compared to 0.3% the previous month.

Incomes are up, spending is up, and inflation is down. Even the savings rate has increased slightly. This report is the best economic news in a long time, and comes just in time for the holiday season, said Robert Frick, economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

Faced with inflation, the Fed has raised its rates by five percentage points since March 2022. This measure increases the cost of credit for households and businesses, and discourages consumption and investment, which helps ease the pressure on prices.

Rates are in the range of 5.25 to 5.50%, the highest since 22 years, since July. The Fed left them at this level during its last three meetings, in order not to weigh too heavily on economic activity, and to avoid recession.

Because the full effects of rate hikes take time to be fully felt in the real economy.

Fed officials now see rates will begin to be lowered in 2024, and most are considering three or four cuts next year, to bring them to 4.6% at the end of 2024.

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Electronic devices and household appliances are considered durable goods. Orders for this type of goods increased in November in the United States.

Furthermore, orders for durable goods rebounded strongly and much more than expected in November, thanks in particular to new aircraft orders, after a fall in October, according to data published Friday by the Ministry of Commerce.

So-called durable goods are those used for three years or more, such as cars and household or electronic appliances. They are considered a good indicator of the health of the American economy.

The total amount of orders amounted to 295 .4 billion dollars, an increase of 5.4% compared to October, the fall of which was also revised to -5.1%, a little less sharp than initially announced. Analysts expected an increase for November of only 2%, according to the Market Watch consensus.

Economic growth, which surprised by its still vigorous third quarter, however, may have already started to slow.

Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed from its solid pace of the third quarter, the Fed commented on December 13.

The figures on the evolution of American GDP in the fourth quarter will be published on January 25 .

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