“In 2025, heavy attack UAVs will be able to partially replace manned aircraft,” — Pavlo Gvozdenko

Deputy commander of the special unmanned systems unit “Typhoon” Pavlo Gvozdenko told UNIAN about the war of drones and gave a forecast for the year 2025.

Paul, who has the advantage in UAVs now, who has more drones: ours or the enemy? 

At this moment, the enemy may have more drones that are used for reconnaissance, coordination of artillery strikes. We are talking about such UAVs, in particular, as “Orlan”. But in my opinion, we have a distinct advantage in FPV drones and small attack UAVs. 

We do this because manufacturers have more freedom.  In fact, if you are a Ukrainian developer, you have fewer obstacles than a developer in Russia. There is a lot of regulation in this sector, and there are several large corporations that are trying to close this area to themselves. 

But can new developments add to the enemy's advantage? For example, relatively recently, the news discussed the new Russian development “Okhotnik”, which can probably carry cruise bombs. That is, the question is whether it or similar UAVs can significantly affect the course of the war? this is a new Russian heavy drone. As far as is known, an experimental sample has already been shot down. And its influence on the course of the war depends, first of all, on the number.

One such device will not make a revolution, and we are only seeing the first steps towards serial production. Given its cost and production complexity, I don't think it will be able to be mass-produced before 2025. 

But I note that a lot of work is being done in Ukraine to create heavy strike drones. I have not heard of a direct analogue of this “Hunter”, but our developers are actively working on solutions that will be able to perform similar tasks. Perhaps they will differ in terms of mass, dimensions and other parameters, but we have interesting projects of heavy drones. 

At the same time, whether such projects will have a future depends on how much they will be financed and supported. the state It is obvious that the manufacturer's investments will be much greater than in the development and production of small drones.

Tell us more about the level of Ukrainian development and developers. What can be implemented in the near future, what not, and why?

Ukrainian drone developers have shown extremely great progress in recent years. FPV-developments are already very actively used on the battlefield, but there are other UAVs that have shown themselves from the best side.  These are, for example, “Punisher” (reusable strike drones, — UNIAN), “Sokil-300”.

The last — an attack drone created by the Ukrainian design bureau “Luch”. It is designed for reconnaissance missions and pinpoint strikes on ground targets. Its design flight range varies from 1,300 to 3,300 km, and the duration of stay in the air can reach up to 26 hours. “Sokil-300” can carry high-precision weapons, in particular RK-2P and RK-10 missiles, which will probably allow it to effectively hit ground targets. This drone can be a significant achievement in the development of Ukrainian combat drones and, most likely, will have a high potential for use in war.

In the near future, we can expect the expansion of serial production and modernization of Ukrainian UAVs. However, some more complex projects may be delayed due to difficulties with financing. In addition, problems with  import of critical components. Unfortunately, China has restricted the shipment of UAV components to Ukraine, and manufacturers are forced to look for alternative sources. But I am sure that in 2025 we can expect that UAVs will have an even greater impact on the conduct of war – both at the operational and strategic levels. 

Most likely, the main emphasis will be placed on automation, increasing the autonomy of flights, resistance to EW means. I think that in the second half of 2025, heavy strike UAVs will most likely be able to partially replace manned aircraft. 

What do you think about the “war of drones” when FPVs destroy “wings” , about the confrontation of “classic” and ground drones? 

Yes, relatively cheap FPV drones already show high efficiency in the fight against expensive enemy drones, such as “Orlans”, “ZALA” and others. There are many crews that have achieved quite good results.

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The technology, in principle, is simple: interaction with drone detection systems  makes it possible to coordinate the actions of the FPV drone pilot and effectively destroy enemy aircraft-type UAVs, scouts. However, it is likely that countermeasures will be improved, in particular due to the development of EW. But thanks to cheapness and availability, FPV drones will still remain an important element of modern warfare.

Ground drones also, by the way, have a high potential in such a confrontation.  After all, they can be used against both air and ground enemy drones, thanks to their ability to operate in difficult conditions and perform various tasks. I will list several key aspects of their potential in the fight against enemy drones.

First, ground-based drones can be detection and destruction tools. That is, they can be equipped with special systems, such as thermal imagers, radars or other sensors that allow you to quickly identify the approach of aerial drones. Thanks to high-precision guidance systems, ground-based drones can launch anti-drone missiles or fire from small-caliber weapons.

Secondly, such drones can be equipped with electronic warfare systems capable of jamming or intercepting the control signals of enemy drones. This can result in loss of control over enemy aerial drones or forced landings.

Third, ground drones can be deployed to counter enemy ground drones as interceptors. After all, they can create barriers, mine, or even attack with explosive devices.

Finally, ground drones can collect intelligence about the approach of air or ground drones, which allows you to quickly react to a threat and coordinate the actions of other units to neutralize enemy drones.

You touched on the topic of radio-electronic warfare.Who has more effective EBs? And doesn't friendly fire interfere with the work of our electronic devices?

The enemy has well-developed means of electronic warfare. We feel it in different directions. Somewhere it is more intensive, somewhere less, but it definitely disrupts the work of our drones, does not allow them to work effectively. Often, it is even impossible to fly through such a “wall” of EW. However, our Ukrainian specialists are actively adapting to these challenges, constantly looking for technical solutions that allow them to perform tasks effectively. That is, at the same time, the level of our WBs is also increasing. Intensive development is underway in this direction.

Regarding “friendly fire”, of course, this is a problem in any war. But it all depends on how close the interaction is between the divisions that are at zero. Simple communication minimizes this problem, and I think there is progress in this direction.

You mentioned quite effective enemy EWs. However, there are also other means of countering our UAVs. Will the enemy be able to defend their oil depots and airfields?

I think that with the development of our kamikaze drones and precision weapons, such facilities will remain vulnerable. I know that some of our drones calmly overcome a distance of more than a thousand kilometers, for them this is not a problem. And through satellite images, we see that such strikes are quite effective.

Recently, relatively many divisions of unmanned systems have begun to form. Is it difficult to get into such a battalion?

Getting into the unit of unmanned systems is not as difficult as it might seem at first glance. However, it is necessary to have training and, first of all, motivation. For example, you can join our unit without basic training, if we see that there is great motivation, there are certain prerequisites.

The advantage is for those whose profession allows you to quickly relearn and control drones. We refer to such professions as IT specialties. Also, these are people who were engaged in gaming and played games. 

We devote a lot of time to recruiting. If a person is suitable for us, we take him through all the stages of transition to our unit: we communicate with the TCC, give appropriate letters of recommendation, after the person enters the National Guard training center, we monitor the training process, and take him directly to our military unit for registration. After that, a person still goes through a period of adaptation, training at a pilot school, and then combat coordination takes place. Our young pilots are joined by fighters who have already participated in hostilities and have many successful operations to their credit. Only after that, the move to the combat zone takes place, and there also more experienced crews coordinate the activities of less experienced ones. 

How long does such training take?

All it takes at least three months. If someone has completed courses that confirm knowledge and ability to operate drones before mobilization, the term may be shortened.