Fiscal consolidation in 2021 will have a restraining effect on inflation in the Russian Federation in 2021, which is projected at 3.7%, according to the macro forecast for 2020-2023 published by the Ministry of Economic Development on Saturday, which was approved by the government at a meeting on September 16.
“In 2021, the planned fiscal consolidation will have a restraining effect on the growth rate of consumer prices, which will only be partially offset by the implementation of the effect of the monetary policy easing. In these conditions, inflation at the end of next year is expected at 3.7% y / y. In the future, it is expected that the growth rate of consumer prices will return to the target level of the Bank of Russia (4%), “the macro forecast says.
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade reminds that “the need to implement large-scale programs aimed at combating the spread of coronavirus infection and mitigating the economic consequences of the introduction of restrictive measures demanded a significant softening of budgetary policy (in 2020 and partly in 2021, a full return to the parameters of the budget rule is planned in 2022) “.
In 2020, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts inflation in the Russian Federation at 3.8%.
The forecast also notes that the average ruble exchange rate in January-August amounted to 70.0 rubles. per dollar, while on average for the period of September 1-25, the exchange rate reached 75.2 rubles / $, “which is associated with an increase in the assessment of risks by financial market participants due to temporary factors.”
“As they are exhausted, the ruble exchange rate is expected to return to fundamentally sound levels at the end of 2020 – beginning of 2021. The average annual ruble exchange rate as a whole for 2020 is estimated to be 71.2 rubles / $. The average annual ruble exchange rate against the dollar is expected to be at the level of 72.4 in 2021, 73.1 in 2022, 73.8 in 2023, “- expect the strengthening of the ruble in a few months in the Ministry of Economic Development, explaining its current weakening below fundamental values by temporary factors.
“A moderate depreciation of the exchange rate (by about 1% per year against the US dollar and by about 2% per year against the bi-currency basket) will be mainly due to the inflation differential with trading partner countries. At the same time, in real effective terms, the ruble exchange rate will remain stable, which will keep the competitiveness of the Russian economy and create conditions for the growth of non-primary exports, “the ministry predicts.