Mick Ryan
researcher of wars, retired major general of the Australian Army
Almost three years after Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many countries have reconsidered their approaches to national security, defense budgets, and alliances. The Taiwanese government has also not escaped the strategic reassessments prompted by Russia's actions.
The war in Ukraine has been a catalyst for overcoming a certain complacency in parts of Taiwanese society regarding Chinese aggression.
A key lesson for Taiwan over the past three years has been to preserve national will.
This has political, military, and social aspects. Considerable efforts have been made to enhance military and civilian defense capabilities, as well as to enhance interaction between them.
Military service has also undergone changes. The mandatory military service period has been increased from four months to one year, and training has been modernized.
Chinese military expert Joel Wutnau notes that an important lesson China learned from the war in Ukraine was Russia's failure to “decapitate” the Ukrainian leadership. According to him, the Chinese National Liberation Army has already developed doctrines for using special forces in island landings to strike at the enemy's leadership.
Perhaps one of the most important initiatives has been to strengthen the protection of information flows. Russia, with Chinese support, has launched a massive global disinformation campaign since the start of the war in Ukraine to influence Western opinion, particularly among policymakers.
In April, the chairman of the US House Intelligence Committee said that Russian disinformation had “definitely infiltrated Congress,” and some Republicans echoed Russian claims.
Taiwan has sought to strengthen its ability to counter Chinese disinformation, although this effort has been ongoing for many decades, given China's propensity for such operations since the 1950s.
In his inaugural address, Taiwan’s newly elected President Lai Tsing-te pledged to step up efforts to counter Chinese disinformation both at home and abroad, and to work with other democracies to combat disinformation.
Strategic decision-making has been another important area in which the Taiwanese government has carefully studied the lessons of the war in Ukraine.
The Western approach to decision-making, which is often based on minimizing risks in response to military challenges, has given Taiwan insight into how the US and NATO planning and decision-making machinery works (or does not work).
The combination of these observations analyzing China's reaction to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022 contributed to changes in national decision-making and command and control.
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense has revised its rules of engagement. Pilot retraining has also been organized due to the aggressive behavior of Chinese aircraft and drones in Taiwan's air defense identification zone.
In October, Taiwan's defense minister announced a change in the country's defense policy: “Previously, we stated that we would not launch a first strike… But now that definition has obviously changed, because China uses such means as drones. Therefore, we have adapted and will consider any crossing of the border by aircraft or ships as a first strike.”
Coordination with American officials has also been strengthened, including through the creation of a special task force of the US Department of Defense to accelerate Taiwan's arms procurement.
Taiwan has been subjected to pressure and strategic influence operations from China for decades. Based on this experience, it has developed a series of political, military, information, and societal structures to counter Chinese coercion and provocations.
However, the experience of Ukraine and Russia since February 2022 has greatly accelerated the assimilation of lessons by many countries regarding modern warfare and strategic confrontation in the diplomatic, information, financial, and societal spheres.
Taiwan seeks to use this opportunity to learn, while also anticipating how China can learn and adapt by observing this very conflict.