The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade has raised the forecast for inflation in Russia in 2020 to 3.8% from 3.5% in the previous June version, a source in the ministry told reporters, commenting on the updated forecast of the department, which it presented on Thursday at the government budget commission.
On the contrary, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade lowered the inflation forecast for 2021 to 3.7% from 4.0%, for 2022 and 2023 the forecast has not changed and is equal to 4.0%.
According to the source, the new forecast figures have been agreed with the Ministry of Finance.
“Yes, inflation rose slightly – 3.6% in July, but this is a consequence of the fact that our demand is recovering, and, by and large, the spring weakening of the ruble did not unleash inflation,” the source said.
“There are no significant inflation risks on the forecast horizon. Consumer prices at the end of 2020 are 3.8% yoy. Further, we expect inflation to be close to the target level of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the current policy,” he commented on the ministry's forecast.
As reported, according to Rosstat, inflation in the Russian Federation in January-August amounted to 3.0%, in annual terms at the end of July inflation was 3.6%.
The Ministry of Economic Development expected that in September there would be a slight deflation in the Russian Federation of 0.1%, or zero inflation, said in a review of the department on September 4. According to the ministry's estimates, annual inflation in Russia in September will be 3.6-3.7% after 3.6% in August.
In mid-June, the ministry lowered its forecast for inflation in Russia in 2020 to 3.5% from 4%.
The Central Bank predicts inflation in 2020 in the range of 3.7-4.2%, in 2021 – in the range of 3.5-4.0%.