First year of government: Support for Pedro Castillo was further reduced in the sectors where he obtained more votes

First year of government: Support for Pedro Castillo was further reduced in the sectors where he obtained more votes

Despite remaining the region that most supports the president, the South registered the steepest drop in approval. The same thing happened with the less favored SES.

  • Pedro Castillo: the vacancy and other scenarios haunt his message but without firmness in Congress< /li>

First year of government: Support for Pedro Castillo was further reduced in the sectors where he obtained more votes

Despite the high levels of disapproval, Castillo is one of the presidents who lost the least support in the first year: while his approval fell by 18 percentage points, all the presidents of the last 20 years, except Ollanta Humala, had a more abrupt drop in support in the first year of management. (Photo: Palacio Press)/

Last June 6, 2021, Pedro Castillo Terroneshe won at the polls thanks to the votes of important electoral pockets: the southern region and the less favored socioeconomic sectors. One year after taking the reins of the country, although these pockets remain the ones with the greatest support for the president, they are also the ones where support for the head of state decreased the most.

According to the latest El Comercio-Ipsos survey, the south continues to be the region that most approves of the president. However, it is also the region where support declined the most. In August 2021, the South posted a 58% presidential approval rating. A year later, the figure is 37%. As for disapproval, this went from 21% to 56%, an increase greater than that seen in other areas of the country.

It's a big drop. Although it is the place where it still has the most support, it is significantly the place where it has begun to harvest the most disapproval”, points out political scientist Gonzalo Banda.

According to the specialist, the abrupt fall in the south has to do with the rebellious character of the region, which has historically been less “patient” with the delay in fulfilling electoral promises, as also occurred in the cases of Alejandro Toledo and Ollanta Humala.

Just as the south has had a rebellious agenda , it is also an electoral niche that, when they do not deliver what was promised, tends to turn around quickly”.

In the same vein, the political scientist María Claudia Augusto argues that the drop in southern support may be related “to the breach of electoral promises and the rupture with bases of electoral support”.

Castillo's electoral pocket was southern Peru, to which he proposed an agenda on extractive industries, mining conflicts and social policies. One year into the government, these are unfulfilled demands”, he indicates.

“Where he received the most support is where he loses the most support”

Similar to what happens at the territorial level, the socioeconomic levels (SES) that most supported Castillo they are the ones that showed the greatest increase in disapproval one year after starting the administration.

Although support decreased in all NSEs, in 'E' the change is more evident: approval went from 49% in August 2021 to 29% in July 2022. Rejection, on the other hand, increased from 33% to 63%.

According to Augusto, the increase in disapproval of the Head of State in the less favored sectors has to do with the breach of his campaign speech.

During the campaign, (Castillo) presented himself as a candidate of the people, aware of their demands and committed to confronting the inequalities of the most needy. This is not visible in the actions of the government that have revealed acts of corruption, irregularities and bad appointments”, he explains.

The political scientist recalled that, according to the latest survey by Ipsos Peru, more than 70% disapprove of the government's actions in the fight against poverty or the promotion of employment, “demands that directly impact these sectors.”

For Banda, the results of the surveys at the socioeconomic level show that “where he received the most support is where he lost the most support.”

The political scientist explains that, unlike other populist presidents of 'Socialism of the 21st Century' –such as Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and Rafael Correa in Ecuador–, Castillo has not built a patronage network that benefits the most popular sectors in order to support their management.

One would expect that a government like Castillo's would increase attention in these sectors, that it would bet on building hospitals, tracks; expand drinking water services. But none of that has happened. So, it is a government that ends up being mediocre not only in general terms, but also in the great issues of populism”, he considers.

Backing fell less than in previous governments

With a 74% rejection Pedro CastilloHe is the president with the least support for the first year of government in the last 15 years. In the past two decades, the only president who surpasses him in disapproval ratings in the first year of his term is Alejandro Toledo, with 76%.

But despite the high levels of disapproval, the truth is that Castillo is one of the presidents who lost the least support in the first year: while his approval fell by 18 percentage points, all the presidents of the last 20 years, except for Ollanta Humala, had a more abrupt drop in their support in the first year of management. Alejandro Toledo, for example, had a decrease of 41 percentage points; Alan García of 31 and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski of 27.

Augusto points out that the fact that Pedro Castillohas started his administration with the lowest level of support in the last two decades means that “the decrease is less”. In addition, he considers that the fact that the president's popularity has not fallen more than his predecessors, despite successive government scandals, is explained by various reasons, “such as, for example, the support of those who define themselves on the left or the lack of legitimacy that other State powers have, such as Congress”.

According to Banda, so that the downward trend in support does not continue , the head of state would have to be perceived as “a lesser evil in the midst of chaos” by the population. The political scientist maintains that, despite having been able to take advantage of the high rates of rejection of the Congress to increase his popularity, Castillo “has not been able to build that animosity” of the citizens against the Legislature.

< p itemprop="description" class="story-contents__font-paragraph">“(Castillo) He is so limited in his political management that he has not even been defiant with Congress, as Martín Vizcarra and PPK did. And he has had many opportunities to do it ”, he considers.