He affirms that the Brussels forecasts, which designate Spain as the economy that will suffer the greatest contraction, are “out of date”
José Luis Escrivá came to the Government as one of the figures with the greatest respect and credibility in the economic sphere of Spain. His appearances in Congress as president of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) were highly anticipated and valued by all forces. And his warnings were always taken into account by the opposition, who did not hesitate to use them as a weighty argument against which the Government could say little or nothing.
However, that credibility does not seem to be the same that he is granting to organizations such as the European Commission, the Bank of Spain or even the Tax Authority itself . Brussels has warned this Thursday that the fall in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Spain will be 12.8% this year, which is the worst figure in the entire continent, and a sensible correction from -10.9% previously estimated.
” They have become outdated, ” wrote Escrivá when questioned on this point during his speech at the Informative Breakfasts of Europa Press. The reason, he explained, is that they do not collect data from the Labor Force Survey (EPA) and GDP for the third quarter. “The forecasts of international organizations are useful from the point of view of comparison between countries, but individually they are not so interesting or so useful,” he added.
The Bank of Spain, for its part, presented yesterday an amendment to practically all the General State Budgets, including the rejection of the increase in the salary of public workers and a correction of the growth forecasts. And this has not been to the liking of the Minister of Social Security, who has resumed a war that he already had with the body led by Pablo Hernández de Cos when he was in charge of AIReF.
Thus, he pointed out that the forecasts of the Bank of Spain on the behavior of the labor market in the third quarter were below what the EPA finally reflected, and has recommended to the body, in which he himself began his professional career, ” learn “from the miscalculations and see where the errors lie .
AIReF also expresses many doubts
And with all these criticisms, although without citing them directly, Escrivá would also be downplaying AIReF's own warnings. Its current president and second during her term, Cristina Herrero, has made a diagnosis in Congress this Thursday similar to that of Hernández de Cos, showing serious doubts about the figures set out by the Executive in its Budget Plan and warning that, in the current In this context, the official economic recovery figures look very complicated .
“The optimistic scenario”, which is the one that resembles the official estimates, ” rests on unfortunately increasingly distant assumptions taking into account the evolution of the pandemic”, Herrero has summarized. In order for them to be fulfilled, it would be necessary that the Christmas campaign could be carried out and that “the measures of restriction on mobility were eliminated, possibilities that right now seem very complicated.