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Demand for electric vehicles exceeds forecasts

Natasha Kumar By Natasha Kumar Jan29,2024

The quantity of energy required to recharge them is increased to respond to growth.

Demand for electric vehicles exceeds forecasts

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The Quebec government wants 2 million electric vehicles to be on the province's roads in 2030.

    < li class="mt-2 flex first:mt-0">Thomas Gerbet (View profile)Thomas Gerbet

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Hydro-Québec is forced to review its forecasts for electricity consumption in Quebec, due to the popularity of electric vehicles, but also because of the new ambitions of the Legault government to electrify the automobile fleet.

A document filed with the Régie de l'energy shows that the state company must modify its 2023-2032 Plan to adjust to the anticipated growth in the number of electric cars.

Hydro-Québec calculates that, by 2032, 1.2 terawatt hours (TWh) must be added to the overall energy demand already forecast, solely because of the needs of this type of vehicle. To give an order of magnitude, 1.2 TWh is the equivalent of the electricity consumption of 70,000 Quebec families.

The state-owned company wrote to the Régie on January 19 that it was “the strengthening of the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) standard” that forced it to review its calculations. The Quebec government announced last year that its Plan for a Green Economy is now aiming for a target of 2 million electric vehicles on the roads by 2030 rather than 1.6 million.

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There are 250,000 electric cars registered in Quebec.

On November 30, in a parliamentary committee, senior management of Hydro-Québec admitted that they had not seen such a request coming.

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Look at the number of electric vehicles we have on our roads today, compared to just two years ago. There is significant electrification. There is a significant demand for electricity, which exceeds what we had anticipated.

A quote from Julie Boucher, vice-president of Hydro-Québec, in a parliamentary committee, on November 30, 2023

This statement greatly surprises professor at the University of Montreal Normand Mousseau, scientific director of the Trottier Energy Institute, who supervised an anticipation study on energy needs. an all-electric Quebec vehicle fleet.

Not having seen the number of electric vehicles in 2023 coming in 2021, that doesn't hold water, according to him . The trend was clear, we saw exponential growth. There's nothing surprising about where we are today.

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There are more than 250,000 electric vehicles registered in Quebec.

Normand Mousseau doubts that we will reach the government's objective of two million vehicles in 2030, with the problems of car delivery times.

I have a brother who ordered an electric vehicle, he was told it will take two years before he gets it. So, it will not be part of the 300,000 vehicles that should be added this year to reach our goal.

The federal government has also announced a target of 100% electric vehicles among new vehicles sold in 2035.

If we ever reach our targets, we can are we loading all these cars?

The state-owned company recently announced a massive project to add up to 9,000 megawatts (MW) of power to its network. Power is the ability to supply electricity to all those who demand it at the same time.

A third of all This added power will only be used to charge the province's electric vehicles. The table presented by Hydro-Québec to the Régie de l'energie shows a need of 2922 MW, just for that, in 2035.

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Hydro-Québec analyzes show that owners of electric vehicles most often charge them between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m.

According to the professor Normand Mousseau, it will be necessary to put in place “regulations for the control of recharge” in order to manage the winter peak.

Last year, Hydro-Québec underestimated the demand for electricity during a severe cold at the beginning of February. A record consumption of all Quebecers, more than 43,000 MW, had significantly exceeded forecasts.

In 2050, electric vehicles could consume, on their own alone, 6,000 MW during a peak, according to the state company.

Hydro-Québec writes to the Régie that it has received new electric vehicle charging data that takes into account the new reality of teleworking. Thus, spreading out charging hours could reduce the anticipated impact during peaks of 73 MW.

In addition, an offer currently in development and favoring the movement of charging during the night is also taken into account in the forecast, writes the state company.

Over such a distant horizon, Hydro-Québec also anticipates that technological developments will greatly change the portrait of the vehicle fleet, particularly battery technologies which will see their weight decrease and their capacity increase. This will have an impact on the frequency of charging needs.

Finally, forecasters believe that electric vehicles could become tools for managing peak consumption with bi-directional power technologies that will allow the electric car to serve as a battery to power the house, during peak winter consumption.

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Natasha Kumar

By Natasha Kumar

Natasha Kumar has been a reporter on the news desk since 2018. Before that she wrote about young adolescence and family dynamics for Styles and was the legal affairs correspondent for the Metro desk. Before joining The Times Hub, Natasha Kumar worked as a staff writer at the Village Voice and a freelancer for Newsday, The Wall Street Journal, GQ and Mirabella. To get in touch, contact me through my 1-800-268-7116

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