Correctly chosen direction of blows. Why Russian oil will start to fall in price in June

“The first statistics have appeared that indicate an increase in the discount between the prices of URALS oil (of Russian origin) and BRENT. Prices diverged quite widely for the first time since the beginning of 2024. I assume that one of the main reasons is strikes on Russian refineries and fuel supply channels in the central regions of the Russian Federation. Opinion.

The first statistics have appeared that indicate an increase in the discount between the prices of URALS oil (of Russian origin) and BRENT. Prices diverged quite widely for the first time since early 2024. I suppose that one of the main reasons – strikes on Russian refineries and fuel supply channels to the central regions of the Russian Federation. The strategy of pushing Russian oil onto the market will lead to a decrease in its price, as it replaces Russia's fuel exports.

I would like to remind you that the Russians' lack of storage for oil does not give them the possibility of price maneuvering in this situation. Breaking the correlation between URALS and BRENT, and maximizing the discount to the level of the first half of 2023, and then fixing it within the price ceiling may significantly affect the Russian Federation's income from oil exports in the second half of 2024. However, most likely, the second quarter of this year will be relatively successful for them, since the prices of URALS remained at the level of more than 60 dollars per barrel for a long time.

However, the revealed trend clearly indicates the correctness of the chosen direction of strikes and may to positively influence the prices of oil and fuel in the Black Sea region already in June.