September 13, 2021 by archyde
In numbers, infections with the Corona virus have not yet crossed the risk threshold. Until this moment, it is still possible to say that the health situation is “under control,” as confirmed by the Dean of the Faculty of Sciences at the Lebanese University, Dr. Bassam Badran. Although the numbers returned to be remarkable, especially those related to the number of deaths (it reached about 800 injuries and 11 deaths yesterday), there are several factors that make the peak an option that is still relatively far away, unless something disturbs the peace now.
In this context, Dr. Muhammad Haidar, consultant at the Ministry of Public Health and director of the Department of Nuclear Medicine and Laboratory at the American University of Beirut, goes to identify two main factors in keeping the situation within the safe box. In the first place comes the factor of vaccination, which restored some balance to society, especially in terms of increasing the number of vaccinated people. According to the figures, the percentage of those who received two vaccine doses reached one million and 270 thousand, and the number of those who received one dose of vaccines reached one million and 500 thousand. To these, it is possible to add those who have acquired natural immunity as a result of infection with the virus previously, which stakeholders estimate at between two and two and a half million people, which raises the number of those who have formed immunity against the virus to about three and a half million. This means, according to Haidar, reaching 50 or 60 percent of societal immunity.
In the other part of the “immunity” against the virus, it is possible to rely on the numbers mentioned in the Corona counter. Today, the number of infected people is below the thousand mark. In addition, the percentage of positive tests that decreased from 9% to 7%, and the percentage of room occupants in hospitals decreased to about 385 injured, of whom about 180 are in intensive care rooms.
Lebanon has reached a rate of 50 to 60% of societal immunity
As for the death toll, which is trending upwards, the Ministry of Health sources indicate that most of the deaths, as well as most of those who needed and need hospitalization, are from the age groups who did not receive vaccinations or who refused to receive their vaccinations. This means that “the vaccine protects, albeit in certain proportions,” according to Badran. Haidar points out, in the context, that 70-80% of the victims are over seventy years old, and the rest are in their twenty-thirties. What these people unite is that “either they did not receive vaccinations, or they suffer in most of them from chronic and incurable diseases, so that death was not a direct effect of the virus, but rather because the virus doubled the risks of their diseases.”
A month and a half ago, it was possible to talk about a peak, with the number of injuries reaching about 1,500 in mid-July. However, things returned to moderation, with the numbers dropping below a thousand. Since adjusting the peak to reach safety takes “about 7 to 9 weeks,” Haidar says, this means that two to three weeks are crucial to build on.
However, this path may be threatened at some point, particularly with the return to schools that are still unsafe. In this context, Badran points out that the worrying question today is: Will injuries rise in the under-16 age group? Will schools be the time bomb that re-explodes the health situation and charts a new course for the path of the virus in the country?