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Canadian GDP stagnates for a third consecutive month in October

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According to Statistics Canada, the majority of Canada's largest real estate markets continued to slow down.

The Canadian Press

The Canadian economy stagnated for a year third consecutive month, in October, according to data published Friday by Statistics Canada.

Canada's economic engine continued to stall in the fourth quarter, reacts Royce Mendes, economist at Mouvement Desjardins and head of macroeconomic strategy, in a note to clients.

As more households and businesses feel the effects of rising interest rates in 2024, we expect Canada to fall into a mild recession at best. So even though the economy is currently experiencing hiccups, it could start to decline early in the new year.

A quote from Royce Mendes, economist at Desjardins Movement

The federal agency reported that the activity of service-producing industries has slightly rose 0.1% in October, while goods-producing industries were unchanged.

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Activities of real estate brokers decreased by 6.8% in October, the largest monthly decline since April 2022.

Statistics Canada also projects that real gross domestic product (GDP) for November rose 0.1%, led by gains in the manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and warehousing sectors. ;agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, partially offset by a decline in retail trade.

Olivia Cross of Capital Economics said the GDP figures were weaker than expected, which would increase the risk that the economy would contract again in the final quarter. This is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada will soon take the turn towards monetary easing.

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Overall, quarterly GDP growth will most likely be lower than the Bank of Canada's forecast of an annualized gain of 0.8%, she adds.

In October, the manufacturing sector fell by 0.6% and wholesale trade by 0.7%, again according to Statistics Canada. For their part, retail trade grew 1.2% while mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction saw a 1% gain.

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The St. Lawrence Seaway strike slowed shipping for about a week in October. The Unifor union walkout lasted from October 22 to 27.

The transportation and warehousing sector declined 0.2% in October. The strike at the St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation has led to a reduction in activity in certain transportation subsectors.

This included a 3.7% contraction in shipping. This is the first drop since the labor dispute in British Columbia ports, including Vancouver. Transportation by truck, for its part, was down 0.9%.

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The British Columbia port strikes lasted more than a month last summer. (File photo)

CIBC economist Andrew Grantham said that while supply issues continue to hold back activity due to events like the Saint Seaway Management Corporation strike, -Laurent and the strike in the automobile sector in the United States, there are also indications of weak demand.

Weak demand will likely persist as more homeowners refinance their loans at higher interest rates, limiting overall economic activity and seeing inflation will slow further in 2024, opening the door to a rate cut in the second quarter of next year.

A quote from Andrew Grantham, CIBC economist

The activities of real estate brokers decreased by 6.8% in October, the largest monthly decline since April 2022, while, according to Statistics Canada, the majority of the largest Canada's real estate markets continued to slow.

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