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US President Donald Trump announces his decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, in the Rose Garden of the White House, in Washington, June 1, 2017.
The rest of the story is well known: a few months later, Donald Trump will eject the United States from the Paris Agreement, a move that will undermine the climate negotiations during his years in office.
Faced with the attitude of the Americans, China once again isolated itself, and major GHG emitters such as India, Brazil, Indonesia and Australia took the opportunity to slow down. climate.
A wind of optimism began to blow again on climate diplomacy upon the arrival of Joe Biden at the White House in 2021. The channels of communication between Beijing and Washington have been revived. The president's special envoy on climate change, former Secretary of State John Kerry, has been shuttling between the two countries to forge a new partnership. The duo, which accounts for 40% of global emissions, is cooperating again to strengthen the energy transition.
But above all, these powers are showing the rest of the world that the two biggest polluters on the planet are ready to do their part.
If Donald Trump returns to power, we can expect the 2016 scenario to repeat itself, but with perhaps even greater consequences than the first time for the global fight against climate change.
< p class="StyledBodyHtmlParagraph-sc-48221190-4 hnvfyV">If he is re-elected, he will likely withdraw his country from the Paris Agreement again and break the pact with the Chinese. And that would only be a first step.
It would probably also cut off all channels of international climate aid. Funds which normally go to the most vulnerable countries to enable them to carry out their own energy transition, to recover after having suffered a climatic disaster or to adapt to the effects of climate upheavals.
A gesture which, here again, could in some way give permission to other countries to break their financial promises.
This would be a monumental step backwards. Since COP27 in 2022, negotiations have finally unblocked the complex issue of aid to developing countries, an issue that had stagnated climate discussions for decades.
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Environmental activists hold a banner with the slogan Loss and damage, finance now, during a climate strike action in Paris, France France, June 23, 2023.
Without this money, the countries of the South will never have the means to achieve their energy transition and move away from fossil fuels. When these countries are forced to continually dip into their education or health budgets to repair infrastructure damaged by climate disasters, the need to invest in renewable energy and adaptation comes way down the list. priorities. Without this help, major polluters like India, Indonesia and Brazil will be very reluctant to begin their transition away from fossil fuels.
This is why international financial aid is much more than just a whim. It is a fundamental part of protecting the global climate.
The return of Donald Trump could erase years of effort that helped build this climate solidarity.
But there is more. The return of the turbulent Republican candidate would coincide with two phenomena that undermine climate action.
On the one hand, public confidence in the COP process and climate negotiations in general is shaken. The results are seen as thin compared to the scale of the event, and the growing presence of lobbyists from the fossil fuel industry raises doubts about their influence. In addition, Azerbaijan will host the major climate conference next November, making it the third fossil fuel producing state in a row to assume the presidency, after Egypt in 2022 and the United Arab Emirates in 2023. /p>Open in full screen mode
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Heydar oglu Aliyev and President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan pose during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28 ) at Expo City in Dubai, United Arab Emirates on December 1, 2023.
On the other hand, the arrival of Trump would coincide with the wave of climate denial which is hitting the entire West. The rise of populist movements in Europe, Latin America and North America, combined with the certain erosion of citizens' purchasing power, is weakening climate policies in all countries. The return of Trump as leader of the world's largest economic power would only accelerate this underlying trend.
Consequently, if we can risk to a politicoclimatic forecast is that if it hits, Hurricane Trump will sweep across all continents.
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