Sat. Feb 24th, 2024

Analysis | United States: What will happen on January 6 2025? | Donald Trump facing justice

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On January 6, 2021, protesters broke through security barriers at the Capitol and entered as Congress debated the certification of the electoral vote for 2020 presidential election.

  • Frédéric Arnould (View profile)Frédéric Arnould

Just three years ago, on January 6, 2021, an assault without precedent in the history of American democracy was launched against the Capitol in Washington by thousands of supporters of a president who had just been defeated in the elections.

Conspiracy theorists of all stripes, ultrapartisans of Donald Trump and other disruptive trolls have always claimed, with supporting evidence (although none of them they never passed the test of facts), that this insurrection was the work of Antifa, or even undercover police officers, who had orchestrated this movement to make the pro-Trump crowds look bad.

Now, what are the facts? On January 6, 2021, the Capitol was indeed stormed by a crowd of supporters of Donald Trump, two months after his resounding defeat at the polls. Their objective? Keeping him in power by preventing a joint session of Congress from counting the Electoral College votes to formalize President-elect Joe Biden's victory.

It is as the chief instigator of this pack and this movement aimed at preventing the validation of the official results that Donald Trump will be at the heart of a trial which should be held this year.

Certain courts and state authorities have already ruled on the ineligibility of the ex-president for the Republican primaries which aim to choose the candidate of the party in the presidential elections. Appeals to other courts will follow in the coming weeks.

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The role that Donald Trump played during the insurrection of January 6, 2021 is at the heart of a trial which will be held in the next few months.

Donald Trump facing justice

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Donald Trump faces justice

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The images of this attack shook not only the Americans, but also the citizens of the planet, who discovered a democracy more vulnerable than they imagined, despite the failure of the insurgents.

According to the House Select Committee that investigated the incident, the attack was the culmination of a plan to seven parts of Trump aimed at invalidating the electoral result.

Donald Trump had already sowed doubt about the credibility of the presidential elections well before this inglorious episode of American history.

Already on July 30, 2020, during a press conference, he raised doubts about the validity of postal ballots. I don't want to see a winner a week after November 3 or a month or, frankly, with the litigation and everything that can happen, years, or you'll never know who won the election, had- he declared.

The thesis of the stolen election that he has defended since his defeat, a thesis yet dismantled piece by piece more than sixty times in court, remains his stock in trade for his 2024 campaign.

Add to it the ingredients of political persecution, this witch hunt of which he claims to be a victim, and you obtain a campaign financing plan that seems to reach his supporters well.

< p class="StyledBodyHtmlParagraph-sc-48221190-4 hnvfyV">The fact remains that more than 1,200 people have been charged with federal crimes related to the Capitol riots. More than 900 of them pleaded guilty or were convicted after trials decided by a judge or jury.

Three years later, to the day, what remains of this event, traumatic for some and galvanizing for others?

According to a survey carried out a few days ago by the Washington Postand the University of Maryland, Republican voters are more understanding of those who stormed the U.S. Capitol and more likely to absolve Donald Trump of responsibility for the attack. x27;attack than they were in 2021.

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The January 6 Parliamentary Committee held its hearings in Congress to present its findings on the events of January 6, 2021.

Republicans surveyed are now less likely not only to believe that the January 6 participants were primarily violent, but also to think that Trump bears responsibility for the attack.

More troubling, some said their views had changed because they now believed the riot was instigated by law enforcement to suppress dissent policy. It comes back to this baseless conspiracy theory that has been heavily promoted in right-wing media and by Trump in his inflammatory speeches.

In the same survey, twenty-five (25!) percent of Americans say it is probably or definitely true that the FBI is #x27;origin of the attack on the Capitol. Among Republicans, 34 percent believe the FBI organized and encouraged the insurrection, compared with 30 percent of independents and 13 percent of Democrats.

At the level of American voters, pollsters also asked whether Joe Biden had been legitimately elected. 69% of Americans answered yes in 2021. Today, that’s down to 62%. Slightly fewer Republicans today (31%) believe that Biden's election was legitimate than in 2021 (39%). And more than a third of Americans, or 36%, do not accept the legitimacy of the Democratic president's victory.

Repetition does not turn a lie into truth, former United States President Franklin D. Roosevelt once said. Except…

Faced with the trivialized radicalization among Trump and the Republicans, Joe Biden believes that the theme of defending democracy will be a promising one for his campaign. Faced with the threat of revenge, sown on the right and left by the ex-president and faced with the seeds of an autocracy with dictatorial overtones praised by Trump himself, the Democratic president has a long way to go.

Yet even if current polls give Trump a lead over Biden, even in key states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, it is impossible to see a firm trend which will necessarily materialize by November 5, 2024.

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Will a rematch between Biden and Trump lead to a year of danger in the United States?

Polls on voting intentions, about a year before the presidential election, do not give a clear reading of the situation, especially in the context of a rematch in which the Americans say they would like to see the two duellists replaced by new blood.

In the event that the final battle between the two men does take place, and given what happened there is three years, one is left to wonder what will happen on January 6, 2025, when Congress certifies the Electoral College votes.

Given the hypothetical prospect of another Joe Biden victory, what will Donald Trump and his supporters do? Another uprising, more radical than ever, to besiege the White House or the Capitol? We are still in political fiction…

What if Trump wins? It would be surprising if Democrats, usually reluctant to contest results because they still have confidence in the electoral system, formed a radicalized movement like the MAGA and took up arms.

But it's still way too early. After all, Americans are never immune to surprises and twists and turns. Even if, until proven otherwise, the Biden-Trump rematch seems, for the moment, inevitable. January 6, 2025, the date of certification of the results, will perhaps make us forget that of three years ago. Who knows?

  • Frédéric Arnould (Consult the profile)Frédéric ArnouldFollow

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