A woman inserts her ballot into a ballot box during the presidential election in Moscow, Russia on March 15, 2024.
All that remains today to oppose, quote, Putin, in this election which is a theatrical operation, is that extras who do not criticize the president and his policies. The poorly named Liberal Democratic Party presents a new candidate, unknown to the general public.
This formation, for decades, had been represented in the presidential election by Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who was very well known: a sort of far-right ultranationalist clown, with misogynistic and homophobic outbursts, now deceased. He regularly fetched between 5% and 10% of the vote. He dreamed of World War III, of burning Paris, of atomizing Berlin. At the end of December 2021, during one of his last public outings, shortly before his death, he had wanted kyiv to be bombed on the night of December 31. Putin would respond to his wishes less than two months later.
Opponent Ilia Iachine, now number one figure in the imprisoned opposition, close friend of the late Alexeï Navalny and of Boris Nemtsov, the politician assassinated at the gates of the Kremlin in 2015 gave a written interview from his prison, to the daily Libération, which published it on March 14.
Even official Kremlin sociologists note that this presidential vote is taken seriously by only 1% of the population. Putin has only allowed the registration of three other candidates, whose names mean absolutely nothing to the vast majority of voters. And none of whom has led a presidential campaign, criticizes the regime, organizes observation in the polling stations, and, naturally, covets victory […] The only candidate who had tried to create an alternative and campaigned for the end of the war, Boris Nadezhdine, was unable to register, allegedly because of false signatures. While the whole country saw these endless lines of people who came enthusiastically to put these same signatures, in many cities of Russia.
A quote from the interview with Ilia Iachine in the daily Libération
The election takes place this time over three days, from March 15 to 17. And this year, Putin extended the vote to four Ukrainian regions – Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk – partly controlled by the Russian army: a symbolic gesture of imperialist appropriation, in territories occupied by force.
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry on Thursday called Russia's holding of elections in these territories illegal, and encouraged Ukrainians living there not to participate. The Ukrainian presidency asks the rest of the world not to take the Russian election farce seriously.
What does Vladimir Putin expect from this ritual exercise, a facade democracy that a frank dictatorship like China does not even bother to organize? A strengthening of his power, a massive symbolic approval of his war in Ukraine. In the run-up to the vote, Putin has verbally threatened Western powers, periodically warning them that Russia is prepared to deploy nuclear weapons if its sovereignty and independence are threatened.
While playing troublemaker internationally, throwing Europe and the Western world, in February 2022, into a crisis without precedent since the Second World War, he has the paradoxical desire, internally , by showing its muscles in front of the world, to project stability and security for its fellow citizens. Fellow citizens who, in Russia, are rather subjects.
Concretely, it is reported in Moscow that Putin would have ordered the display, on Monday morning, of 80% of the votes cast in his favor… with a ban on the three other candidates from exceed 10%. Results ordered, telegraphed, played out in advance.
Regardless of the president's real support among the population – through enthusiasm, resignation or passivity – support which is not negligible and which can be in the 50% or 60% range, the score will certainly be adjusted upwards. And this, all the more easily since with electronic voting now established in part of the country, there is no longer any need to physically stuff ballot boxes, as was notoriously done during the legislative elections of 2011 and the presidential election of 2012.
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Russian dolls of Vladimir Putin and his predecessors Dimitri Medvedev, Boris Yeltsin, Mikhail Gorbachev and Leonid Brezhnev are on sale in Moscow.
So, 80%: this is the score that apparently has already been decided. We will see on the morning of Monday March 18 if it is confirmed. A score necessarily and necessarily higher than what Putin had obtained in the past, after the 64% in 2012 and the 77% in 2018.
In 2011 and 2012, in addition to the evidence of fraud – administered, at the time, by friends of Alexeï Navalny in different polling stations in Moscow and Saint Petersburg – a study by the French specialist Marie Mendras, summarized in < em>Le Monde, had placed the fraud increase in a range of 5% to 15%, compared to the real result of Putin or his training.
What is this vote worth, from the point of view of its representativeness? Quite a few, and it’s not just a question of numbers or dubious polls. What should you say, in fact, to an unknown pollster who calls you in Russia to ask you what you think of President Putin?
Minimum conditions of pluralist democracy are not fulfilled in this election. It is very difficult to see in it the sovereign, free and representative expression of the real opinion of the people.
Another comment from imprisoned dissident Ilia Iachine in his extensive interview with Libération:
My country is not without hope. From the outside, we surely have the impression that Russia is populated by an obscurantist and aggressive mass. But this is not true. Of course there is evil everywhere, as in every society. But Putinism is not the natural state for Russia. It's a disease. And our society will have to heal from this to develop its best qualities and return to civilized countries. Like German society, which had to purge itself of Hitlerism to save itself and start a new life.
A quote from Ilia Iachine's interview with Libération< /em>
The results of Putin's triumph are expected to be known Sunday evening or Monday morning…after which the leader could choose to unveil unpopular policies.
Will there be, in the wake of the election, a general mobilization – something that the Kremlin has so far sought to avoid? The partial mobilization imposed in September 2022 caused a shock wave in Russian society. A general conscription is perhaps the only thing, in the context, that could seriously shake Russian support for the war and the regime.
This that follows this election will be more important than the election itself.
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