Wed. Feb 28th, 2024

After a parliamentary season on the defensive in Ottawa, the weapon available to Justin Trudeau is his patience.

< img class="aligncenter" src="/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/8c6c61845a86bf0bc8e2bad64e43860f.jpg" alt="Analysis | Federal elections in 2024? Not so fast!" />

Open in full screen mode

Justin Trudeau and the Liberals know that their support is closely linked to economic ups and downs.

  • Louis Blouin (View profile)Louis Blouin

Voice synthesis, based on artificial intelligence, makes it possible to generate a spoken text from written text.

A chaotic autumn and a pugnacious opponent: Justin Trudeau is still far from recovering in the polls. The Prime Minister will be better off letting the clock tick down to 2025 rather than rushing elections to 2024.

After months of lagging behind the conservatives in the polls, there is no question of telling stories in the liberal camp. We think it's going to take us a good year to rebuild everything, says a liberal source on the line.

Housing and the cost of living top the list of concerns for Canadians. When things go badly, the government in place inevitably bears the blame.

Liberals know that their support is closely linked to economic ups and downs. p>

An upcoming drop in the key rate could calm Canadians worried about the imminent renewal of their mortgage. Stabilization of the cost of living could also calm the discontent against the liberals, but it will take time. The Bank of Canada estimates that a return to the 2% inflation target will not occur before 2025.

LoadingPicketing, “what ossa” gives?

ELSELSE ON INFO: The picket, “qu’ossa” gives?

Starting next summer, Canadians will start breathing again, hopes our liberal source. A stronger economic recovery than expected could also allow the liberals to have the wind in their sails.

There are a lot of stars that need to align.

An election campaign in 2025 would possibly leave two budgets for the Liberals to prove to the population that they are capable of meeting expectations in terms of fiscal responsibility, cost of living and housing assistance.

Behind the scenes, Liberals are convinced that giving Canadians more time to study Pierre Poilievre will work to their advantage. In other words, we must give the Conservative leader time to expose his weaknesses.

In recent weeks, excess confidence has played tricks on him. His blame addressed to the media after his premature exit regarding the accident on the Rainbow Bridge as well as his opposition to the new version of the Canada-Ukraine agreement gave ammunition to his adversaries.

The Conservatives’ parliamentary obstruction maneuvers also backfired. Pierre Poilievre's troops forced 135 votes on a series of specific budget items that turned into weapons for the Liberals. The latter were able to accuse them of voting against funding for the construction of affordable housing or against military aid intended for Ukraine, for example.

Open in full screen mode

Some overconfidence of the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Pierre Poilievre, played tricks on him.

After the Conservatives maintained a roughly 15-point lead over the Liberals all fall, a recent Abacus* poll gives a glimmer of hope to Justin Trudeau's party. This survey conducted from December 7 to 12 shows that the conservatives lost 5 points in voting intentions and that the liberals rebounded by 4 points (PCC, 37%; PLC, 27%).

If this isn't a trend yet, it's surely a warning. Still according to this Abacus survey, one in three Canadians want a change of government but are not convinced by the alternatives. In November, the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party were tied in this group. Today, the PLC has a 16-point lead, Abacus CEO David Coletto noted on Platform “>Despite his comfortable lead, Pierre Poilievre still has work to do to crystallize his support.

The conservative leader is still slow to make his positions known on important issues.

What will its climate targets be? Where would it cut to return to a balanced budget? Would he maintain important social programs implemented by the Liberals, such as daycare and dental care programs? It's still impossible to know. Over time, the questions will become more pressing and vagueness will be difficult to defend. Justin Trudeau will not fail to point this out.

In this context, preserving the agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP), which must ensure the stability of the government until 2025, is not only logical but above all crucial.

Could the NDP be tempted to pull the rug out from under the Liberals' feet? The relationship seems to be holding up for the moment. The two parties are cajoling each other and showing flexibility. They agreed to postpone the deadline for tabling a bill on drug insurance until March 1.

The government has just announced the launch of the new dental care program and tabled the anti-scab bill this fall, as promised to the NDP.

Open in full screen mode

By virtue of its agreement of support and confidence with the Liberals, the New Democratic Party of Jagmeet Singh has never had so much power to Ottawa.

The New Democrats have never had so much power in Ottawa and are in no hurry to hand over the keys of Parliament to Pierre Poilievre, especially since they have failed to take advantage of the Liberals' decline in the polls. Their support remained stable.

The marriage of convenience between the Liberals and the NDP is holding up: no question of starting divorce procedures For now. The fact remains that in a minority Parliament, an accident quickly happens.

After eight years in power, does Justin Trudeau still have the political capital necessary to catch up? If he hopes to achieve this, the Prime Minister will need all the time at his disposal.

* Poll methodology:

This survey was conducted among 1919 Canadians through the Abacus Data panel and was conducted from December 7 to 12 using a questionnaire in line. As a guide, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

  • Louis Blouin (View profile)Louis BlouinFollow

By admin

Related Post