A disappointing forecast: by 2035, every fifth Ukrainian will be a pensioner

Every fifth Ukrainian will be a pensioner/Depositphotos

Every fifth Ukrainian may become a pensioner by 2035. Such a disappointing forecast is explained by negative demographic trends.

One of the negative trends – extremely low birth rate. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to the press service of the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine.

In the modern world, the total fertility rate is 1.0 per woman, which is more than twice as low as the indicator that ensures population reproduction ( 2,2). This leads to the deformation of the sex-age structure of the population.

Ukraine is already one of the countries with a high average age of the population: almost 18% of the population is aged 65 and over. The aging of the population in the country will progress: it is expected that by 2035 every fifth Ukrainian will be over 65 years old, – specified by the Ministry of Social Policy.

The department emphasizes that the low birth rate is due to a number of reasons, including:

• value changes associated with a change in focus from the number of children being born to the quality of their maintenance;
• economic factors (high level of poverty);
• difficulties in combining work and raising children;
• increasing probability of health deterioration due to war (wounds, injuries, stress, depressive moods);
• separation of families due to the mobilization of men and women to the ranks of the Armed Forces, mass emigration of women abroad.

Most of the mentioned factors act together, creating a synergistic effect and making it necessary for most Ukrainian families to postpone the birth of a child in anticipation of a more favorable period. However, a significant part of delayed births may not materialize, – the department noted.

We will remind you that earlier in the Ministry of Social Policy it was reported that in 2051 the population of Ukraine could reach 25.2 million people. Thus, the number of Ukrainians will decrease by 11 million. As noted in the department, this is due to a number of threats that directly affect the number of Ukrainians.