A couple of extra cocktails

A couple of extra cocktails

A couple of extra cocktails

Investing.com – Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke three times this week, and so far the bottom line in his efforts to cheer investors up has been modest. This week cannot be called devastating, but the S&P 500 futures, which grew to 3310 points last Friday evening, barely reached 3270 points this evening at 9:00 pm Moscow time.

At the same time, today's result – more than a percentage point growth compared to the previous close – does not look so bad against the background of data on August orders for durable goods in the United States: even taking into account the adjusted data for July, their growth for the third month in a row turns out to be much worse than forecasts …

But you can't count on more. New protective measures in connection with the coronavirus pandemic have reached the United States – for example, in Florida, restaurant occupancy is again limited to 50%.

At the same time, “everything is complicated” in relations between the United States and China. The US authorities today extended by two months until November 30 the deadline for completing transactions with companies controlled by the sanctioned Xinjiang Industrial and Construction Corps. The deal on transferring Oracle and Walmart (NYSE: WMT) part of TikTok's American business could have improved the negotiating climate even more – but trouble came from where they did not expect: the deal has been discussed for a month, and suddenly today the Chinese Renmin Ribao announced in its editorial “ an unequal treaty ”.

Futures on a barrel of Brent grew slightly from $ 41 to $ 41.8 since Monday evening, but he does it very nervously – along the way, the price reached $ 42.6 and returned to $ 41.2.

“Slowing economic recovery, lack of fiscal stimulus due to disagreements between Republicans and Democrats, nervousness over the appointment of a new head of the Supreme Court – and a new quarantine. Separately, perhaps this news would have been tolerable, but it worked like a cocktail, ”explains Dmitry Polevoy, Investment Director of Loko-Invest. “That said, American stocks are still considered expensive.”

Everything is fine in Russia again. Sberbank (MCX: SBER) on the eve of a really impressive presentation of its strategy, and today also announced that, despite the Central Bank's warning, it will still send 50% of last year's net profit to dividends – they will amount to as much as 422.4 billion rubles, or 18, RUB 7 per share.

However, this helped his shares to lose less in price – during the main trading session, the quotes of ordinary shares fell by about fifty dollars. On the whole, the Moscow Exchange index dropped by 0.55% today, and the RTS index – by 2.04%.

The ruble has gotten a lot today – by 19.40 Moscow time the dollar exchange rate has grown by 1.22 rubles. up to 78.36 rubles., and the euro rate exceeded 91 rubles. I don't even want to talk about the results for the week – it seems that at some moments it seemed that the struggle was going on with “varying success”, and at the exit the same “wooden” one on the evening of last Friday went to the dollar at 75.75.

The sanctions theme shines with new facets: a group of American senators from the eastern – “capital” states of the United States, both Democrats and Republicans, submitted to Congress a bill on sanctions against Russian officials “involved in gross violations of international law, including the recent poisoning of the opposition leader and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny ”. In addition, it is required to check the sources of income of President Vladimir Putin and his entourage, as well as the likelihood of violating US laws on chemical and biological weapons.

The coronavirus is also making itself felt: Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin urged Muscovites over 65 to spend more time at home, and enterprises to transfer employees to a remote location. True, like last time, we are only talking about “recommendations” – that is, Muscovites themselves will be responsible for the final decision. And even those wishes begin to “work” only from Monday – suddenly it will resolve itself.

But the plan for economic recovery, presented to President Vladimir Putin back in June, was finally approved: by 2024, it is planned to allocate 5 trillion rubles for these purposes. (about $ 72.5 billion by June standards and $ 63.8 billion at the current exchange rate – the savings are evident). True, as noted by Kommersant, 80% of this amount has already been spent or should be spent by the end of September, and further rapid growth will take place on delivery.

“Everything is quite simple: globally the situation is unstable, during the week the markets were falling, the dollar was frontally strengthening against almost all currencies, and spreads are growing on the bond markets of developing countries – that is, there is a general“ risk-off ”. Today's news about a sharp increase in morbidity in Moscow and recommendations to work remotely played a role. Together with the sanctions news, and even the oil prices went lower, the shares are actively being sold. However, there is no collapse in the OFZ market and even a slight decrease in yields – so, perhaps, this is not a total sale so far, but only a current reaction to the negative background, says Dmitry Polevoy. – In the foreign exchange market, stop-losses were probably also triggered, in addition, people could close long positions in the ruble before the weekend. The problem is that at the level of 77 rubles. there was a consensus against the dollar that the ruble had weakened enough, and rates on strengthening began to rise – but in fact the opposite happened. Nevertheless, while I still believe that if the global situation does not worsen, if we go through a period of volatility before the US elections and the sanctions background does not increase, the ruble may strengthen on the horizon for two or three months. ”

(Text prepared by Daniil Zhelobanov)

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