Al Zayyat/AFP
The dollar advanced cautiously on Friday ahead of US inflation figures and the likely introduction of tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, while gold hit a new low record.
Barely back in the White House, Donald Trump announced that he wanted to impose 25% customs duties on Canadian and Mexican products from February 1, despite the free trade agreement that binds them to Washington.
A threat that “continues to destabilize investors”, because even if they “still consider it a negotiating ploy” by the American president, it “is about to be enacted”, estimates Susannah Streeter, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
At around 11:25 GMT (12:25 in Paris), the greenback gained 0.16% against the European currency, at 1.0374 dollars to the euro, and gained 0.09% against the pound, at 1.2407 dollar.
In theory, an increase in customs duties could strengthen inflation in the United States, and thus delay the process of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which supports the dollar.
The American central bank's favorite gauge, the inflation index (PCE) for December is already expected on Friday to accelerate slightly over a year, to 2.6% according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, against 2.4% over a year in November.
But the effects of these customs duties worry analysts: if they were applied, according to Oxford Economics, the American economy would lose 1.2 percentage points of growth and Mexico could be plunged into recession.
The concrete application of these customs surcharges also remains uncertain. Even if they were confirmed shortly, “it could still be a week or more before they are actually activated”, tempers Derek Halpenny, of MUFG.
According to the analyst, the previous example given by Donald Trump of a “quick turnaround after the announcement of tariffs on Colombia could also limit the impact on financial markets”, which are plagued by “a high level of skepticism”.
On Friday, an ounce of gold climbed to a new high of $2,800.98, after having already surpassed its record the day before.
The yellow metal owes its “new historic high” to a general movement towards safer assets “due to Trump's threats of tariffs, growing geopolitical tensions, the increase in US government debt and fears of a possible rout” of tech in the United States, which worries the markets, summarizes Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote Bank.
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