“Key European armed forces remain inadequate” – British report

European countries still have a long way to go to be ready to face threats from Russia, and to rely less on US aid.

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This is stated in the report of the London-based think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies, which was published on Friday, November 8, at the beginning of a three-day ministerial meeting in the Czech capital, where European leaders gathered to discuss European and transatlantic military potential.

British research emphasizes that despite the fighting in Ukraine and the depletion of Russian forces, Moscow still poses a significant threat to Europe. In particular, Russia remains capable of long-range strikes against critical targets, with largely intact military power, such as the Northern Fleet.

In addition, Russia remains at its disposal “cyber threats and threats of indirect action” against countries NATO, reminds the report.

At the same time, the researchers, referring to the estimates of American military intelligence, indicate that as of mid-2024, Russia “will very likely not be able to capture and hold the territory inside the NATO country” due to the serious depletion of its ground forces in Ukraine.

But there may be indirect actions of the Russians against European countries, the document says. In particular, the actions of agents of the Russian military intelligence, the GRU, who, according to the head of the Security Service of the United Kingdom, carried out “arson, sabotage and more dangerous actions carried out with increasing recklessness”.

Different intelligence of NATO countries on – different estimates of the time it will take for Moscow to recover from losses in Ukraine and prepare for an attack on NATO countries.

If British intelligence believes it will take 10 years, including time to correct mistakes, while Estonian military analysts believe Europe has no more than three years to prepare to deter or repel a Russian attack.

“In response, NATO promised to increase its military readiness to better deter and, if necessary, defeat further Russian aggression,” – the report says.

At the same time, the report emphasizes that European NATO members “seek to eliminate critical gaps in capability and readiness.” In particular, more troops were stationed in Eastern Europe, new military plans were agreed upon, and more exercises were conducted.

Alliance countries have also signed the NATO New Force Model (NFM), adopted at the 2022 Madrid Summit, and the entry into the alliance of Finland and Sweden has significantly improved NATO's capabilities in Northern Europe and the Baltic region.

The report emphasizes that it is necessary to correct mistakes made during “decades of neglect and underinvestment” of the armed forces of European countries, therefore “much remains to be done, and progress ambiguous”.

According to the report, the war of attrition that Russia is waging in Ukraine has painfully highlighted the current problems of European countries. In particular, the report talks about the insufficient arsenals of the Europeans, “both in terms of personnel and in terms of equipment”, which were “severely depleted as a result of political decisions after the end of the Cold War and the following decades”.

The report says most national military buildup programs are classified, but Germany, for example, the only NATO country to publicly announce its plans, has pledged to be able to provide 30,000 troops, 65 aircraft and 20 naval vessels by 2025. ships that the Bundeswehr will be able to deploy within 30 days.

Part of the German military has already been deployed in The increased front-line presence of the Alliance, and 22,000 servicemen of the reinforcement of the army, consisting of two brigades. Germany also announced the permanent deployment of a heavy maneuver brigade in Lithuania until 2027, according to the report.

Many European armies lack military personnel – in some countries they are trying to attract future soldiers with better material and financial conditions, in others – restore or expand conscription to increase troops and create a larger reserve.

“A key lesson of the Russian-Ukrainian war is the need for the armed forces to restore losses and restore the number of personnel in conditions of exhaustion,” – says the report.

According to British researchers, “key European armed forces remain insufficient”.

The study was released during a meeting of European leaders, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in Budapest.

According to the Associated Press, in the Hungarian capital, NATO's European members reviewed their transatlantic relations in the hope that during Donald Trump's second presidency in the United States, it will be possible to avoid the disputes that occurred during his first administration and maintain a firm common position on Russia.

Ben Schreier, executive director of IISS-Europe, quoted by AR, said that European defense is now at its “most critical time”.

“The US election will put even more pressure on European countries to invest more in own defense, but at the same time considered how to continue helping Ukraine win this war,” he says.

In Europe, there are fears that the newly elected US president may implement some of his pre-election promises, which included trade wars with the EU, withdrawal of NATO commitments and fundamental changes in support of Ukraine in its war with Russia, writes AR.

The agency recalls that during his first term of 2017-2021, Trump encouraged European NATO members to spend more on defense, up to 2% of GDP, as this provided for in the charter of the alliance, and rely less on US military support.

Some countries have reached this figure and even exceeded it. In 2024, defense spending by European NATO member states will be 50% higher than 10 years ago, according to the report.

But problems remain, the IISS analyst writes, citing the lack of stability in state financing, which limits the defense industry's opportunities for long-term investments.

The report notes that due to demand from Ukraine, Europe's defense industry managed to increase the production of some types of products after 2022 of the year, especially such as air defense and artillery.

But European countries that have transferred their weapons to Ukraine, including F-16 fighter jets, “remain dependent on the United States for some important aspects of their military capabilities,” according to report.

Due to their lack of production capacity, they have to rely on countries such as Brazil, Israel or South Korea to meet their needs, the report emphasizes.

Concern in NATO states is as well as the fact that there is a dependence on China and, to a lesser extent, Russia for defense materials and subcomponents.

The Europeans have a long way to go to restore their defense capabilities, the report says.